Motio’s Upgraded Guidance Highlights Risks of Reliance on Election-Driven Spending
Motio Limited has upgraded its FY25 revenue and EBITDA guidance following unexpectedly strong trading conditions after the Federal Election, driven by a surge in national and programmatic advertising.
- FY25 revenue guidance raised to $9.0-$9.5 million
- Cash EBITDA upgraded to $1.9 million+
- Strong post-election national advertising and programmatic spend
- Quarter 4 on track to be the company’s best quarter yet
- No income tax expected due to substantial tax losses
Post-Election Advertising Boost
Motio Limited (ASX, MXO) has surprised the market by upgrading its financial guidance for the 2025 fiscal year, citing a significant uplift in trading conditions following the recent Federal Election. The company highlighted an unexpected surge in national advertising campaigns, some booked and executed within the same day, alongside increased spending in its programmatic advertising channel. This dynamic environment has propelled Motio to revise its revenue forecast upward to between $9.0 million and $9.5 million.
Strong Earnings and Cash Flow
Alongside the revenue upgrade, Motio has also raised its cash EBITDA guidance to $1.9 million or more, reflecting the company’s high gross margins exceeding 75% and a relatively fixed cost base. This means that additional revenue largely translates into improved profitability and cash flow. The company’s focus on cash generation is further supported by its substantial tax losses, which are expected to shield it from income tax payments in the foreseeable future, enhancing free cash flow prospects.
Quarter 4 Momentum
While the fourth quarter (April to June) is still underway, Motio anticipates it will be its strongest quarter to date, surpassing even the unusually high performance of the first quarter of FY25. This momentum underscores the company’s ability to capitalize on market conditions and suggests a robust finish to the financial year.
Balance Sheet and Debt Position
As of June 18, 2025, Motio reported cash reserves of $2.65 million and a net amount owed to OML of approximately $1.085 million, inclusive of principal and interest. This financial position provides a solid foundation for the company to continue investing in growth opportunities while managing its obligations prudently.
Looking Ahead
CEO Adam Cadwallader expressed optimism about the company’s trajectory and encouraged shareholders to engage directly with management ahead of the upcoming shareholder update. The upgraded guidance and strong trading conditions position Motio as a company to watch in the digital advertising space, particularly as it leverages its programmatic capabilities in a buoyant market.
Bottom Line?
Motio’s upgraded guidance signals strong momentum, but investors will watch closely as Q4 results finalize and market conditions evolve.
Questions in the middle?
- Will the strong Q4 momentum sustain into FY26 amid changing advertising landscapes?
- How will Motio leverage its tax losses and cash flow to fund future growth?
- What impact will increased programmatic advertising have on long-term profitability?
