Bankan Gold Project: 3.26Moz Reserve, $463m Capex, 46% IRR Confirmed

Project Overview and Economic Highlights

Predictive Discovery Limited (ASX – PDI) has released the results of its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Bankan Gold Project in Guinea, West Africa, confirming the project’s status as a major new gold development with compelling financial metrics. The DFS updates the Probable Ore Reserve to 51.6 million tonnes at 1.78 grams per tonne gold, containing 2.95 million ounces, and forecasts a total mining inventory of 54.5 million tonnes at 1.86 grams per tonne for 3.26 million ounces of gold.

Over a mine life of 12.2 years, the project is expected to produce approximately 250,000 ounces of gold annually. At a base case gold price of US$2,400 per ounce, the project delivers a post-tax net present value (NPV) discounted at 5% of US$1.6 billion and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 46%, with a payback period of less than two years. These metrics improve significantly at recent spot gold prices near US$3,300 per ounce, with the post-tax NPV rising to US$2.9 billion and IRR to 73%, and payback shortening to just over one year.

Mining and Processing Strategy

The DFS outlines a mining plan combining conventional open pit operations at the NEB, Gbengbeden (GBE), and BC deposits with an underground mine at NEB. The open pits will be mined using drill, blast, truck, and shovel methods, while the underground operation will employ a hybrid longitudinal and transverse long hole open stoping method with paste backfill to maximize ore recovery.

Mining optimisation has resulted in a significantly reduced life-of-mine waste to ore strip ratio of 1.9 – 1, down from 4.6 – 1 in the previous pre-feasibility study, achieved by adopting steeper pit wall angles and a smaller NEB open pit complemented by increased underground mining. The processing plant is designed for a throughput of 4.5 million tonnes per annum using conventional carbon-in-leach (CIL) technology with upfront gravity recovery, delivering an average gold recovery of 92.8% over the mine life.

Capital and Operating Costs

The capital cost estimate is US$463 million, including pre-production mining, indirect costs, and a contingency allowance of US$34 million. Operating costs are competitive, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) estimated at approximately US$1,057 per ounce, supporting strong free cash flow generation. The project’s capital intensity and cost structure compare favorably with other large-scale gold developments in West Africa.

Environmental and Regulatory Progress

Environmental approvals represent a significant milestone, with the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development in Guinea approving the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and issuing the Environmental Compliance Certificate in January 2025. The exploitation permit application is at an advanced stage of government review, with the company confident of securing this critical permit imminently. The project’s location within the Peripheral Zone of the Upper Niger National Park has been carefully managed through comprehensive environmental and social management plans, including biodiversity protection and community engagement.

Next Steps and Market Implications

Following the DFS release, Predictive Discovery plans to commence financing activities, targeting a mix of equity and debt funding, supported by early positive engagement with potential financiers. Execution readiness activities, including detailed engineering, tendering, and early works, are scheduled to begin promptly, aiming for construction commencement in the second quarter of 2026 and first production by mid-2028.

The DFS confirms Bankan as one of the most promising gold projects in West Africa, with robust economics and a clear development pathway. However, the inclusion of a small proportion of Inferred Mineral Resources in the production target introduces some geological uncertainty, and the recent revocation of certain exploration permits in Guinea may affect the company’s broader resource base. Investors will be watching closely for permit grants, financing progress, and exploration updates that could extend mine life further.