Rare Earth Price Swings Pose Risks and Opportunities for Meteoric’s Caldeira Project

A Globally Strategic Rare Earths Asset

Meteoric Resources NL has taken a decisive step forward with the release of its Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the Caldeira Rare Earth Ionic Clay Project, located in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The study confirms Caldeira as a long-life, globally strategic rare earths project, underpinned by a maiden Ore Reserve of 103 million tonnes grading 4,091 parts per million total rare earth oxides (TREO). This positions Caldeira among the world’s largest and highest-grade ionic clay rare earth deposits.

With a planned processing throughput of 6 million tonnes per annum, the project is designed to produce a mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) product rich in critical magnet rare earth oxides such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. These elements are essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense technologies, sectors experiencing rapid growth and driving global demand for secure rare earth supply chains.

Robust Economics and Operational Efficiency

The PFS outlines strong operational and financial metrics, including an average operating cost of US$8.91 per kilogram of TREO over the first five years, rising modestly to US$9.78 per kilogram over the life of mine. Capital expenditure is estimated at US$443 million, inclusive of contingency, reflecting a moderate capital intensity for a project of this scale.

Financial modelling based on broker consensus pricing delivers a pre-tax net present value (NPV) at an 8% discount rate of US$821 million, with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 28% and a payback period of less than three years. Under a more optimistic pricing scenario reflecting recent US Department of Defense and MP Materials agreements, the pre-tax NPV rises to US$1.3 billion with an IRR of 36%, underscoring the project’s sensitivity to rare earth price movements.

Sustainability and Government Support

Caldeira’s sustainability credentials are notable, with plans to source 100% of its energy from renewable sources including hydro, solar, and wind power. The project benefits from proximity to existing infrastructure, including roads, power grids, and ports, minimizing additional capital requirements and environmental impact.

Government backing is strong, with the State of Minas Gerais designating Caldeira as a priority project and inclusion in Brazil’s Climate and Ecological Transformation Investment Platform. Environmental permitting is progressing on schedule, with the Preliminary License expected in 2025 and the Installation License targeted for 2026, paving the way for construction commencement.

Technical Confidence and Next Steps

The PFS incorporates extensive drilling programs totaling over 71,000 meters and 45,000 samples, metallurgical testwork led by the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), and detailed mine and processing designs. ANSTO’s 15-day continuous pilot program validated the process flowsheet, achieving world-class recoveries of 71% for magnetic rare earth oxides and producing a high-purity MREC product with less than 2% impurities.

Meteoric is advancing the construction of a 25kg/hour pilot plant in Poços de Caldas to further optimize processing and support customer qualification. Concurrently, the company is engaging with potential strategic partners for project funding and offtake agreements, leveraging the project’s compelling economics and strategic importance.

Positioning in a Critical Market

As Western economies seek to diversify rare earth supply chains away from dominant Chinese sources, Caldeira’s scale, grade, and location offer a timely and competitive alternative. The recent US Department of Defense and MP Materials partnership, including a US$110/kg floor price for NdPr, highlights the growing demand for secure, responsible rare earth supply, a demand Caldeira is well-positioned to meet.