Aeris Faces Execution Risks as It Pursues Asset Sales and Aggressive Exploration

Operational Outlook and Production Targets

Aeris Resources Limited has released its FY26 production and financial guidance, highlighting a robust operational outlook anchored by a 37% increase in copper output at its Tritton mine in New South Wales. The company projects copper production of 24 to 29 kilotonnes, a substantial rise from the 17.9kt produced in FY25, driven by the availability of stockpiled ore from the Murrawombie Pit and the processing plant running above nameplate capacity at 2 million tonnes per annum.

Meanwhile, gold production at the Cracow mine in Queensland is forecast to be slightly lower at 36 to 46 thousand ounces, reflecting declining ore grades but offset by increased mining rates and throughput enhancements. The company is also investing in exploration and development of the Roses Pride mine to supplement ore sources from the main Western Vein Field.

Strategic Asset Rationalisation and Financial Strengthening

Aeris is actively simplifying its portfolio by pursuing the sale of its North Queensland assets, including a substantial 952 square kilometre tenement package and the development-ready Barbara project. Indicative non-binding offers have been received, with potential transaction completion anticipated later this year. This divestment strategy aims to sharpen focus on core operations at Tritton and Cracow, while unlocking approximately $6.5 million in restricted cash held against environmental bonds.

Financially, Aeris plans to repay its $40 million drawn debt facility by August 2026, supported by improved cash flow from operations and proceeds from asset sales. The company has successfully refinanced its corporate guarantee facilities and extended its term facility, positioning itself to strengthen its balance sheet amid ongoing market volatility.

Exploration and Growth Initiatives

Exploration expenditure is set to nearly double to between $18 million and $23 million in FY26, underscoring Aeris’s commitment to extending mine lives and discovering new resources. At Tritton, the focus is on resource extensions at Avoca Tank, Budgerygar, and Tritton deposits, with approximately 80,000 metres of underground diamond drilling planned. Greenfield exploration will also commence in the second half of FY26, targeting high-potential areas such as Kurrajong and Budgery.

At Cracow, exploration efforts are concentrated on identifying a +1 million ounce gold analogue at the Southern Vein Field and testing the Western Frontier structural corridor. The Jaguar project strategy has been revised to reduce holding costs while advancing low-cost, high-return exploration targeting base metals and potential gold joint ventures.

Project Development and Future Prospects

The Constellation project remains a key growth driver, with updated mineral resources of 7.6 million tonnes grading 2.01% copper and 0.66 grams per tonne gold. Mining studies are underway to evaluate open pit and underground options, with major capital expenditure expected to commence in FY27 following environmental and mining approvals anticipated in Q3 FY26.

Additionally, the company is progressing studies on the Stockman polymetallic deposit, exploring strategic partnerships to unlock its long-term value given its complex metallurgy and significant resource base.