Aguia Projects Up to A$298m EBITDA from Tres Estrades Phosphate at A$153/t Price

Phosphate Price Surge Enhances Project Viability

Aguia Resources Limited has unveiled a compelling update on its Tres Estrades Phosphate Project in Brazil, highlighting a dramatic improvement in project economics fueled by escalating global phosphate prices. The company now anticipates phosphate prices in the range of A$200 to A$230 per tonne, a substantial increase from the A$120 to A$140 per tonne seen just a year ago. This price surge is underpinning a more attractive financial outlook for the project.

Accelerated Production with Lower Capital Commitment

Targeting production commencement in the first quarter of 2026, Aguia plans to initially produce 100,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of saleable phosphate product. This will be achieved by leasing an existing processing plant operated by Dagoberto Barcelos S.A. near Caçapava do Sul, Brazil. The strategy significantly reduces upfront capital expenditure to around A$7.2 million, a marked decrease from the previously estimated A$26.2 million required for a greenfield facility. Following initial production, the company aims to expand capacity to 300,000 tpa by adding a second drying kiln.

Independent Review Validates Robust Economics

An independent economic review conducted by mining engineer Honorio Lima confirms the project's strong financial fundamentals. At a conservative phosphate price of A$153 per tonne, the project is forecasted to generate EBITDA between A$253 million and A$298 million over its life. The review also highlights a positive net present value (NPV) and a post-tax payback period of approximately 10 years, underscoring the project's viability within a 20-year mine life.

Market Positioning and Agronomic Validation

Aguia is actively negotiating bank financing and offtake agreements to support the project’s development. The company’s sales strategy leverages its proximity to key agricultural markets in southern Brazil, with initial production expected to meet a meaningful share of regional phosphate demand. Agronomic trials led by Dr. Felipe de Campos Carmona demonstrate that Aguia’s phosphate products, including the higher-grade Pampafos and the mixed fertilizer Lavratto, perform comparably to imported chemical fertilizers, offering a cost-effective and locally sourced alternative for Brazilian farmers.

Operational and Environmental Considerations

The project’s mining operations are designed to use conventional equipment with low technical risk, focusing on saprolite ore extraction via open-pit methods. The use of an existing processing facility not only reduces capital intensity but also accelerates the timeline to production. However, the company acknowledges potential operational challenges such as dust control on dirt roads, which will require mitigation measures including water trucks and possibly agglomerants during dry seasons.

Looking Ahead

With phosphate prices showing strong momentum and a clear pathway to production, Aguia Resources is positioning Tres Estrades as a significant player in Brazil’s fertilizer market. The company’s approach balances prudent capital management with market responsiveness, setting the stage for potential future expansions and sustained growth.