Greatland’s Share Price Tanks 24% After FY26 Guidance Downgrade and Cost Hike
Greatland Resources has downgraded its FY26 gold production target and significantly increased capital expenditure forecasts for its Telfer Project, prompting a sharp share price reaction and detailed ASX disclosure.
- FY26 gold production target lowered to 260–310koz from 300–340koz
- Capital expenditure forecast for Telfer growth rises to $230–260 million from $80 million
- Operating cost guidance slightly increased but deemed immaterial by the company
- Updated guidance approved post-board meeting on 28 July 2025 and disclosed in June Quarterly Report
- Company confirms compliance with ASX continuous disclosure rules amid share price volatility
Context of the Update
Greatland Resources Limited (ASX, GGP) has responded to an ASX Aware Letter following the release of its June 2025 Quarterly Report, which included a material revision to its FY26 production and capital expenditure outlook for the Telfer Project in Western Australia. The company confirmed a downgrade in its gold production target and a substantial increase in growth capital investment, which together triggered a 24% drop in its share price on 29 July 2025.
Details of the Production and Cost Revisions
The updated FY26 gold production target now stands at 260,000 to 310,000 ounces, down from the 300,000 to 340,000 ounces forecast in the Prospectus. This revision reflects a risk-weighted assessment of lower gold grades in certain stockpiles and open pit areas mined prior to Greatland’s acquisition of Telfer in late 2024.
Operating costs, measured as all-in sustaining costs (AISC), have been revised upward slightly to a range of $2,400 to $2,800 per ounce, compared to the previous $2,400 to $2,600 per ounce. However, the company considers this increase immaterial, representing only about a 4% rise at the midpoint.
More striking is the increase in capital expenditure for growth initiatives at Telfer, now forecast at $230 million to $260 million for FY26, nearly triple the $80 million previously disclosed. This reflects accelerated investment in mine life extension projects, including the West Dome Open Pit Stage 7 Extension and West Dome Underground development, which were originally planned for FY28 but are now scheduled for FY26.
Timing and Disclosure Process
Greatland explained that these updated figures were finalized only after the board meeting held after market close on 28 July 2025, following an iterative budgeting and assessment process that began in early July. The company emphasized that the updated guidance was not complete or approved during the Listing Process or prior to the Prospectus publication, and thus was not disclosed earlier.
The company maintains that it complied fully with ASX Listing Rules 3.1 and 3.1A, asserting that the updated production target and capital cost information are material and were disclosed promptly once approved. The operating cost increase was deemed not material enough to affect the share price significantly.
Market Reaction and Strategic Implications
The market responded sharply to the announcement, with Greatland’s shares falling from $6.89 to an intraday low of $5.225, accompanied by heavy trading volumes. This reaction underscores investor sensitivity to production downgrades and capital cost escalations, even when operating costs remain relatively stable.
Strategically, the accelerated capital investment signals Greatland’s commitment to extending the Telfer mine life beyond the initial two-year outlook, aiming to secure long-term production sustainability. The company’s strong cash position, with $575 million as of 30 June 2025, supports this growth-oriented approach despite near-term production moderation.
Looking Ahead
Investors will be watching closely how these revised targets and investments translate into operational performance and cash flow in FY26 and beyond. The company’s transparent communication and adherence to disclosure obligations provide some reassurance, but the market will expect tangible results from the accelerated growth capital deployment.
Bottom Line?
Greatland’s FY26 revisions highlight the balancing act between managing near-term production risks and investing for long-term mine life extension.
Questions in the middle?
- How will the increased capital expenditure impact Greatland’s cash flow and balance sheet throughout FY26?
- What operational risks could further affect production targets given the revised ore grade assessments?
- Will the accelerated mine life extension projects deliver the expected production benefits beyond FY27?
