Origin Energy Faces Energy Transition Risks Despite FY25 Profit Growth

Financial Performance Highlights

Origin Energy Limited has delivered a solid financial performance for the full year ended 30 June 2025, with total group revenue increasing by 7% to $17.224 billion and profit attributable to members rising 6% to $1.481 billion. The company declared a fully franked final dividend of 30 cents per share, bringing the total dividend for FY25 to 60 cents per share, up from 55 cents in the prior year.

Underlying profit rose by $307 million to $1.490 billion, largely due to a significant reduction in income tax expense following the shift of dividends from Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) from partially to fully franked. Meanwhile, adjusted net debt to adjusted underlying EBITDA increased to 1.9x, reflecting ongoing investment in growth projects and the energy transition.

Operational Progress and Customer Growth

Origin’s operational strength was underscored by the addition of 104,000 new customer accounts, expanding its base to 4.7 million. This growth spanned electricity, gas, and internet services, supported by improved customer satisfaction metrics including a Customer Happiness Index of 69.4% and a Trust Pilot rating of 4.6 stars.

The Energy Markets segment saw a decrease in underlying EBITDA to $1.404 billion, down $251 million from FY24, driven by lower electricity and natural gas gross profit. However, this was partly offset by cost reductions and strong generation reliability, particularly from the Eraring Power Station and gas peaking fleet.

Advancing the Energy Transition

Origin continued to advance its renewable energy and battery storage ambitions, committing to approximately 1.7 GW of large-scale battery projects currently under development. Notably, the company secured transmission access rights for the 1.5 GW Yanco Delta Wind Farm development project, a key initiative to replace capacity from the retiring Eraring coal-fired power station by August 2027.

Construction progressed on the Eraring and Mortlake battery projects, with combined capacity expected to reach 2,800 MWh. Origin also grew its Virtual Power Plant to 1.5 GW, connecting over 393,000 distributed energy assets, including residential batteries and electric vehicle charging solutions.

Integrated Gas and Octopus Energy Performance

The Integrated Gas segment reported a 13% increase in underlying EBITDA to $2.202 billion, buoyed by higher LNG trading gains despite a 2% decline in production volumes. APLNG remains a significant contributor to the east coast gas market, with 24% of sales volumes delivered domestically.

Origin’s 22.7% share of Octopus Energy recorded an underlying EBITDA loss of $88 million, reflecting continued investment to scale non-UK retail and energy services businesses. Octopus Energy expanded its customer base to approximately 17 million accounts globally, with strong growth in the UK retail market and Kraken Technologies platform.

Governance and Board Renewal

Origin’s Board underwent renewal with the appointment of Fiona Hick and Stephen Mikkelsen as independent Non-executive Directors, bringing extensive leadership experience in energy and related sectors. Maxine Brenner retired after 12 years of service. The Board continues to oversee Origin’s strategic priorities, risk management, and climate transition commitments.

Origin reaffirmed its 2030 emissions reduction targets and long-term ambition to achieve net zero Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by 2050 in its second Climate Transition Action Plan, which will be subject to shareholder vote at the upcoming Annual General Meeting.

Navigating Risks and Future Outlook

Origin acknowledges the complexities and challenges of the energy transition, including regulatory delays, cost pressures, and market volatility. The company remains focused on delivering reliable and affordable energy while investing in cleaner technologies and customer solutions.

Guidance for FY26 anticipates Energy Markets underlying EBITDA between $1.4 billion and $1.7 billion, with continued cost-to-serve improvements and stable electricity gross profit. Integrated Gas production is expected to be between 635 and 680 PJ, with LNG trading gains forecast between $100 million and $150 million. Octopus Energy’s underlying EBITDA is expected to improve, reflecting growth in UK Retail and Kraken Technologies.