Vault’s Production Growth Hinges on Sugar Zone Approval and Deflector Transition

Production Outlook and Growth Drivers

Vault Minerals Limited has released its FY26 production guidance and a three-year outlook through FY28, signalling a period of steady growth underpinned by strategic upgrades and operational shifts. The company expects to produce between 332,000 and 360,000 ounces of gold in FY26, with production rising further in FY27 and FY28 to as much as 400,000 ounces. This growth is largely attributed to capacity expansions at the King of the Hills (KoTH) processing plant in Leonora and the planned restart of the Sugar Zone mine.

The Leonora operations are forecast to maintain consistent output in FY26, with 185,000 to 200,000 ounces expected, supported by both underground and open pit mining. The KoTH plant upgrade, progressing on schedule for completion in Q2 FY27, is set to increase mill throughput from 5.3 million tonnes per annum to over 7.5 million by FY28, enabling a roughly 20% production increase compared to FY26. Meanwhile, Mount Monger and Deflector mines are expected to contribute 75,000 to 82,000 ounces and 72,000 to 78,000 ounces respectively in FY26, with Deflector undergoing a transition to an owner operator model that may temporarily suppress output.

Capital and Cost Guidance

Vault plans to invest a substantial A$278 million in capital expenditure during FY26, with the lion’s share; A$178 million; allocated to Leonora, primarily for the KoTH plant upgrades. Mount Monger and Deflector will see more modest capital spends, while Sugar Zone’s budget reflects preparatory costs pending regulatory approval. The company’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance for FY26 ranges from A$2,650 to A$2,850 per ounce, with Leonora expected to maintain the lowest unit costs, reflecting operational efficiencies and stockpile management.

The transition at Deflector to owner-operated mining is expected to reduce unit costs in the medium term, although FY26 will see higher costs due to the ramp-up phase and associated capital equipment purchases. Mount Monger’s AISC is forecast higher, influenced by mining cost allocations and lower strip ratios, but overall capitalized stripping costs are declining year on year.

Exploration and Resource Development

Exploration remains a key focus, with Vault earmarking A$30 million for FY26, predominantly targeting resource definition and expansion within existing operations. Leonora will receive the bulk of this investment, including extensive drilling programs at KoTH and Darlot underground mines aimed at converting inferred resources into higher confidence categories. Regional exploration is also being reinvigorated, with a focus on under-explored mineralisation corridors near KoTH.

At Sugar Zone, exploration efforts will concentrate on the southern mine corridor, following successful drilling campaigns that expanded ore reserves. Mount Monger and Deflector will continue targeted drilling to support potential mine life extensions and production growth beyond current reserves.

Hedge Book and Market Exposure

A pivotal element of Vault’s outlook is the scheduled unwinding of its hedge book by September 2026. This will leave the company largely unhedged entering FY27, significantly increasing its exposure to gold price movements. The hedge delivery schedule is set to decline in the second half of FY26, positioning Vault to benefit from a stronger gold price environment as production ramps up.

The combination of operational upgrades, exploration success, and enhanced market leverage sets the stage for Vault Minerals to build momentum in free cash flow and shareholder value over the coming years, provided regulatory and operational milestones are met.