How Did Transurban Achieve 2.7% Traffic Growth Despite Weather Challenges?
Transurban's September quarter update reveals steady traffic growth across all key markets, underpinning a reaffirmed 6% increase in FY26 distributions.
- 2.7% increase in average daily traffic (ADT) across Transurban's portfolio
- Strongest ADT growth in North America at 6.8%
- Melbourne sees 3.2% ADT growth, boosted by airport and port activity
- Sydney traffic grows despite adverse weather and construction impacts
- FY26 distribution guidance reaffirmed at 69.0 cents per share, up 6%
Traffic Growth Across All Regions
Transurban Group has reported a solid 2.7% increase in average daily traffic (ADT) for the September quarter of 2025, reaching an average of 2.6 million trips per day across its global portfolio. This growth was consistent across all major markets, with North America leading the charge at a robust 6.8% increase, followed by Melbourne at 3.2%, Brisbane at 2.6%, and Sydney at 1.7%.
Despite facing triple the rainfall compared to the prior corresponding period, Sydney's network showed resilience. Key corridors such as WestConnex and NorthConnex posted strong gains of 8.2% and 2.8% respectively, while CBD assets recorded their first positive growth since April 2024, signaling a potential recovery in urban traffic patterns.
Melbourne and Brisbane Benefit from Economic Activity
Melbourne's traffic growth was notably driven by the Western Link, which saw a 4.7% increase, supported by a corresponding 4.3% rise in Melbourne Airport passenger numbers. Large vehicle traffic surged by 5.4%, reflecting strong container throughput at the Port of Melbourne. Brisbane also experienced healthy growth, with large vehicle volumes up 5.2%, underpinned by increased activity on the Logan Motorway and AirportlinkM7.
North America Sees Dynamic Toll Pricing and Traffic Uptick
In North America, Transurban's assets benefited from a 6.8% ADT increase, with workday traffic rising 7.5%. Dynamic toll pricing also climbed significantly, with the 95 Express Lanes average toll rising 17% to US$13.18 and the 495 Express Lanes up 8.8% to US$8.21. These figures suggest strong demand and effective pricing strategies amid evolving commuter behaviors, including shifts in remote work policies.
Distribution Guidance and Outlook
Transurban reaffirmed its FY26 distribution guidance at 69.0 cents per share, representing approximately 6% growth over FY25. This confidence reflects the company's positive traffic trends and operational performance, although the guidance remains subject to ongoing traffic conditions and broader macroeconomic factors. The company also held its annual general meetings, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder engagement.
Overall, Transurban's September quarter results underscore a steady recovery and growth trajectory across its toll road assets, balancing weather challenges and urban traffic shifts with strong underlying demand and strategic pricing.
Bottom Line?
Transurban’s traffic momentum and distribution outlook set the stage for a closely watched FY26 performance amid evolving commuter trends.
Questions in the middle?
- How will ongoing weather variability impact Sydney’s traffic growth in coming quarters?
- What are the implications of rising dynamic toll prices on North American traffic volumes?
- Can Melbourne and Brisbane sustain large vehicle traffic growth amid changing economic conditions?
