Rio Tinto’s Q3 Copper Output Climbs 10%, Bauxite Guidance Raised to 61 Mt

Strong Operational Momentum

Rio Tinto’s third quarter 2025 production update reveals a company firing on multiple cylinders. The mining giant achieved record quarterly production in its bauxite business, notably at the Amrun operation, and delivered a significant copper output increase driven by the ongoing ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia. These operational highlights underpin an upgraded full-year bauxite production guidance, now set between 59 and 61 million tonnes, up from the previous 57 to 59 million tonnes.

Despite the lingering effects of four cyclones earlier in the year, Pilbara iron ore shipments rose 6% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 84.3 million tonnes on a 100% basis. This resilience reflects Rio Tinto’s focus on operational excellence and recovery efforts, although the company cautions that the system remains tightly balanced with limited capacity to absorb further disruptions.

Major Projects Advancing on Schedule

Capital projects remain a cornerstone of Rio Tinto’s growth strategy. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea marked a significant milestone by commencing first ore loading in October 2025, initiating commissioning tests of the integrated mine-to-port infrastructure. This complex process is expected to span several months before ramping up to full capacity over 30 months as planned.

Meanwhile, the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine continues its steady ramp-up, with recent infrastructure completions including a new primary crusher and concentrator upgrades. The project is on track to boost copper production by more than 50% this year and aims to reach an average of around 500,000 tonnes of copper per year from 2028 to 2036, positioning it as one of the world’s largest copper mines.

Strategic Realignment and Safety Focus

Rio Tinto announced a new operating model designed to simplify the business and unlock shareholder value. The company now operates through three core business units – Iron Ore; Aluminium & Lithium; and Copper. Concurrently, the Borates and Iron & Titanium segments have been placed under strategic review, signaling potential portfolio adjustments.

Safety remains a paramount concern following the tragic death of a worker at the SimFer mine site within the Simandou project. CEO Simon Trott emphasized the company’s commitment to learning and preventing future incidents, underscoring a period of reflection and renewed safety focus across the group.

Market and Outlook

Commodity markets presented a mixed backdrop in Q3 2025. Iron ore prices rebounded above $100 per dry metric tonne, supported by strong steel production in China, while copper prices benefited from supply disruptions and steady demand. Aluminium prices edged higher amid low inventory levels, and lithium demand remains robust, driven by accelerating electric vehicle sales globally.

Rio Tinto’s production guidance remains largely unchanged except for the bauxite upgrade, reflecting confidence in operational delivery despite external uncertainties such as weather impacts and regulatory approvals. The company’s disciplined approach to capital investment and operational simplification aims to sustain mid-term growth and shareholder returns.