How Will oOh!media Navigate NZ Contract Loss Amid 7% Q3 Revenue Rise?
oOh!media reports a 7% revenue increase in Q3 2025, slightly ahead of prior guidance, but flags challenges from a key New Zealand contract loss and softer advertising demand in October.
- Q3 revenue up 7% year-on-year, exceeding 1H25 outlook
- Advertising market softened in October, impacting Q4 expectations
- Loss of Auckland Transport contract significantly affects New Zealand revenues
- Updated full-year 2025 revenue guidance lowered to $689m-$694m
- Adjusted EBITDA forecast between $139m and $142m, including NZ restructuring costs
Strong Q3 Growth Amid Market Headwinds
oOh!media Limited (ASX – OML) has delivered a solid third quarter in 2025, posting a 7% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year. This performance slightly outpaced the 5% growth pace the company had signaled at its half-year results in August, reflecting improved market share in Australia when excluding retail and New Zealand operations.
October Softness and New Zealand Setbacks
However, the momentum slowed in October as the broader Australian advertising market softened, a trend that weighed on out-of-home (OOH) advertising activity and oOh!’s revenue trajectory. More notably, the company faced a significant setback in New Zealand with the non-renewal of its Auckland Transport contract, which materially impacted revenues in that region.
Revised Full-Year Guidance Reflects Challenges
In response to these developments, oOh!media has updated its full-year 2025 guidance. The company now expects total revenue between $689 million and $694 million, slightly below previous forecasts. Gross margin is anticipated to contract to around 43%, down from an earlier estimate of approximately 44%, due to lower revenues and an adverse channel mix in the second half of the year.
Operating expenses remain tightly managed, with oOh! projecting costs between $159 million and $161 million, including restructuring expenses related to New Zealand. Capital expenditure is expected to be at the lower end of the $53 million to $63 million range. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast between $139 million and $142 million, reflecting the combined effects of market softness and restructuring.
Looking Ahead – Recovery and Growth Opportunities
Despite the challenges, oOh!media reports improved trading momentum in November and December, which has extended into January 2026. The company anticipates benefiting from further asset rollouts, which could help offset some of the near-term headwinds. Investors will be watching closely for the company’s full-year results due on 16 February 2026 for clearer signals on recovery and margin stabilization.
Bottom Line?
oOh!media’s near-term hurdles highlight the delicate balance in OOH advertising, with recovery hinging on market conditions and strategic asset deployment.
Questions in the middle?
- How will the loss of the Auckland Transport contract affect oOh!’s long-term New Zealand strategy?
- Can improved asset rollouts sustain revenue growth amid a softening advertising market?
- What margin pressures might persist into 2026 given the adverse channel mix and restructuring costs?
