How Savana’s Algorithm Uncovered a 120% Solar Surge and a $12T US Capex Boom

Algorithmic Valuation Model Validated

Savana Asset Management has released a compelling white paper, "Valuation Decoded," which statistically validates the firm’s proprietary algorithmic valuation framework. By analyzing a decade of data covering 145,000 US-listed companies, Savana demonstrates that markets, while generally efficient, exhibit systematic and exploitable mispricings. Their model assigns companies a valuation score between 0 and 1, with 0.5 representing intrinsic fair value. Crucially, firms identified as undervalued by the model outperformed overvalued peers by an average of 6% in subsequent two-month periods, a relationship supported by strong regression statistics.

This milestone confirms that Savana’s Collective Intelligence approach is not just theoretical but delivers a durable edge in real-world investing. It underpins the Savana US Small Caps Active ETF (ASX – SVNP), which leverages this model daily to identify and capitalize on market inefficiencies in real time.

Canadian Solar – A Case Study in Sentiment-Driven Gains

One striking example of the model’s effectiveness is Canadian Solar (NASDAQ – CSIQ). Despite stable and improving fundamentals, including a 70% revenue increase since 2020, CSIQ’s share price languished for nearly four years amid negative sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions, overcapacity concerns in China, and subsidy uncertainties. The stock traded at steep discounts, with some analysts valuing it at an 80% discount to its sum-of-the-parts valuation.

However, a wave of positive announcements and improving sector data in China sparked a sharp sentiment reversal in September and October 2025. Canadian Solar’s shares surged over 120% in just two months. Savana’s algorithm identified this opportunity early, initiating a position at the point of maximum pessimism and capturing outsized gains as sentiment normalized. This contrarian approach exemplifies how the model seeks asymmetric risk-reward profiles by buying “falling knives” with strong fundamental backing.

US Economic Outlook – A $12 Trillion Capex Boom

Beyond individual stocks, Savana’s report explores a broader macroeconomic theme – the potential for a historic US capital expenditure boom driven by deglobalization and near-shoring under the Trump 2.0 administration. The firm estimates commitments and pledges totaling $12 trillion across trade deals, Middle East pledges, corporate re-shoring, AI investments, and NATO commitments.

This scale of investment could rival the industrialization surge of World War II, potentially boosting US GDP growth into the 2.5%–4.0% range and improving debt-to-GDP ratios without increasing government spending. The strategy, described as a “Reverse Marshall Plan,” leverages US market dominance to coerce global capital into funding national security and technological leadership goals.

Companies positioned to benefit from this re-industrialization, such as engineering giant Fluor, are highlighted as key beneficiaries. Fluor’s expertise in building complex infrastructure aligns with the surge in demand for semiconductor fabs, pharmaceutical plants, and energy projects linked to near-shoring trends.

Implications for Investors

Savana’s findings offer investors a data-backed framework to navigate market inefficiencies and capitalize on structural economic shifts. The SVNP ETF provides direct exposure to these opportunities by systematically applying the validated valuation model. Meanwhile, the Canadian Solar case underscores the importance of sentiment cycles and fundamental analysis in uncovering undervalued assets.

On a macro level, the anticipated US capex boom signals a potential re-rating of US growth prospects, especially in sectors tied to infrastructure and technology. However, the realization of these investments remains uncertain, and geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global economic landscape.