Mayfield Childcare reports steady occupancy growth and improved earnings in late 2025, setting a stronger foundation for FY26 amid sector challenges and an impending takeover offer from Embark Education.
- Occupancy rises across all Mayfield brands in November 2025
- Underlying centre earnings improve with better cost and wage management
- Wage-to-revenue ratio drops significantly from March to November 2025
- Forecast occupancy for February 2026 expected 2% higher than prior year
- Embark Education announces off-market takeover bid with key dates set
Occupancy Growth Defies Sector Headwinds
Mayfield Childcare Limited (ASX – MFD) has revealed encouraging operational results for October and November 2025, with occupancy rates climbing steadily across its portfolio. Group occupancy increased by 1% to 56% in November, while spot occupancy rose to 65%. Even the Precious Cargo centres, a smaller segment, saw a 1% uptick. This growth comes despite broader softness reported by peers in the early education sector, highlighting Mayfield’s effective centre leadership and family engagement strategies.
Earnings Strengthen on Cost Discipline
Underlying centre earnings have improved notably, driven by tighter cost controls and a focused approach to wage management. The company reported $2.3 million in centre EBITDA over October and November, with margins continuing to improve. A key metric, the wage-to-revenue ratio, dropped from 70.9% in March 2025 to 60.9% in November, underscoring the success of operational discipline initiatives.
Optimistic Outlook for FY26
Looking ahead, Mayfield is cautiously optimistic about its starting position for FY26. Internal forecasts suggest occupancy for February 2026 will be 2% ahead of the prior corresponding period, supported by steady pre-enrolment inflows averaging 130 sessions per week. Marketing efforts remain robust, with no slowdown observed in December, and an encouraging rise in multi-day bookings further bolsters the outlook.
Takeover Bid from Embark Education
Adding a layer of complexity to Mayfield’s narrative is the announced off-market takeover bid from Embark Education Limited. Embark plans to lodge its Bidder’s Statement with ASIC by 19 December 2025 and dispatch it to shareholders by 5 January 2026. Mayfield’s board will respond with a Target’s Statement by 20 January 2026, advising shareholders on the offer. Until then, shareholders are advised to take no action regarding the bid.
Navigating a Competitive Landscape
Mayfield’s ability to grow occupancy and improve earnings amid a challenging sector environment speaks to the resilience of its operational model. However, the impending takeover bid introduces uncertainty that investors will watch closely. The company’s focus on sustaining momentum and enhancing centre capabilities will be critical as it enters FY26 under new market pressures.
Bottom Line?
Mayfield’s operational gains set a promising stage, but the unfolding takeover bid will test its strategic resilience.
Questions in the middle?
- How will Mayfield’s board evaluate and respond to Embark’s takeover offer?
- Can Mayfield sustain occupancy growth and margin improvements into FY26 amid sector headwinds?
- What impact will the takeover bid have on Mayfield’s operational priorities and market positioning?