Regulatory Decision Looms: What If NZ Delays Manuka’s US$1.26B Iron Sands Project?

Manuka’s Precious Metals Revival

Manuka Resources Limited is preparing to bring its precious metals assets back into production in the prolific Cobar Basin of New South Wales, with gold and silver output expected to commence in the second quarter of 2026. This restart follows a comprehensive 10-year mine plan targeting 10.9 million tonnes of ore, aiming to deliver approximately 19 million ounces of silver and 46,000 ounces of gold. The company’s existing infrastructure, including a 1 million tonnes per annum processing plant at Wonawinta, is set for a refurbishment and upgrade to enhance throughput and recovery.

The restart capital expenditure is estimated at A$18.9 million, a relatively modest investment considering the projected average EBITDA of around A$106 million per annum. Manuka’s strategy leverages existing open pits and stockpiles at Wonawinta and Mt Boppy, with mining operations scheduled to begin alongside plant commissioning. Notably, the company remains completely unhedged, positioning itself to benefit directly from the current strength in precious metals prices.

Strategic Expansion in Critical Minerals

Beyond precious metals, Manuka is advancing a major iron sands project offshore in New Zealand’s South Taranaki Bight. The Taranaki Vanadium-Titanium-Magnetite (VTM) Project boasts a substantial 3.2 billion tonne resource and has completed a pre-feasibility study indicating a net present value of US$1.26 billion and an internal rate of return of 39%. The project is aligned with New Zealand’s national objectives to double mineral export earnings and support critical minerals supply chains, with vanadium and titanium recently designated as critical minerals by the New Zealand government.

Crucially, the Taranaki VTM Project is subject to New Zealand’s Fast-track Approvals Act, with a key regulatory decision expected by 18 March 2026. This milestone will determine the project’s progression towards a bankable feasibility study and eventual production, which is forecast to generate significant economic benefits including over 300 local jobs and substantial regional expenditure.

Robust Market Fundamentals and Experienced Leadership

Manuka’s timing coincides with favourable commodity price fundamentals. Silver markets are experiencing ongoing deficits driven by investor demand and critical mineral politics, while gold prices remain elevated. The company’s exposure to these markets without hedging amplifies potential upside but also introduces price volatility risk.

Leadership at Manuka brings deep operational and financial expertise, with executives experienced in mining development, commodity trading, and project management. This seasoned team underpins the company’s dual focus on near-term cash flow generation from precious metals and long-term strategic value from critical minerals.

As Manuka prepares for production ramp-up and awaits regulatory clarity in New Zealand, the company stands at a pivotal juncture that could reshape its growth trajectory and influence the regional mining landscape.