Mt Mulgine Project NPV Surges to A$4.7 Billion on Spot Price Rally

Spot Prices Propel Mt Mulgine Economics

Tungsten Mining NL (ASX – TGN) has provided an illustrative update to its Mt Mulgine Scoping Study financials, reflecting the dramatic rise in commodity spot prices as of mid-January 2026. The company’s analysis reveals a striking improvement in key financial metrics, driven by record tungsten prices that have more than doubled since the original study, alongside strong gains in gold, silver, molybdenum, and copper.

While this update does not alter the underlying project assumptions or represent a formal production forecast, it offers a compelling glimpse into the enhanced value potential of Mt Mulgine under current market conditions. Tungsten prices have surged to US$969 per metric tonne unit, a 128% increase over the study’s base price, while gold and silver have risen by 49% and 134% respectively.

Robust Financial Metrics Highlight Project Potential

The updated financial outcomes showcase a post-tax net present value (NPV) of approximately A$4.77 billion at a 6 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) throughput under spot prices, compared to A$936 million under base prices. Internal rates of return (IRR) soar above 100% in aggressive scenarios, with payback periods shrinking to less than a year, underscoring the project’s strong leverage to commodity price movements.

Cash flow projections also reflect this uplift, with total post-tax cash flow over the life of mine reaching nearly A$7.7 billion at 6 Mtpa, a dramatic increase from the base case. These figures position Mt Mulgine as a globally significant critical minerals project, capable of delivering substantial returns if market conditions persist.

Cautious Optimism Amid Funding and Execution Risks

Despite the promising financial outlook, Tungsten Mining emphasises that the analysis is illustrative and does not constitute a commitment to develop. The company highlights the need for substantial pre-production capital expenditure, estimated between A$358 million and A$495 million, and acknowledges the uncertainties around securing funding on favourable terms.

Chairman Gary Lyons noted that while the project fundamentals remain unchanged, the strengthened commodity price environment enhances Mt Mulgine’s strategic importance and supports an accelerated development pathway. However, investors are cautioned to consider the inherent risks typical of mining projects, including market volatility, regulatory approvals, and operational challenges.

Next Steps and Market Implications

The company plans to continue advancing project studies and testwork to validate recoveries and refine economic models. Market participants will be watching closely for updates on funding arrangements and feasibility studies, which will provide greater clarity on Mt Mulgine’s path to production.

In the broader context, the spot price-driven uplift underscores the critical role of tungsten and associated metals in global industrial supply chains, particularly amid ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical factors influencing export restrictions.