Origin Energy Reports $1.59B Underlying Profit, Boosts FY26 Earnings Guidance

Strong Operational Performance and Financial Results

Origin Energy has unveiled its half-year results for the period ending 31 December 2025, showcasing a resilient operational performance amid a complex energy market landscape. The company reported an underlying EBITDA of $1.59 billion, with Energy Markets contributing $860 million; surpassing prior expectations thanks to improved electricity gross profits and cost efficiencies.

Integrated Gas, primarily through Origin’s stake in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG), delivered an EBITDA of $860 million, aligning with forecasts despite a 21% drop in LNG revenue driven by lower realised prices and volumes. The company continues to focus on optimisation and mid-term supply options to sustain production within guidance ranges.

Octopus Energy’s Strategic Investments Impact Earnings

Octopus Energy, in which Origin holds a 22.7% economic interest, recorded an EBITDA loss of $89 million. This reflects ongoing investments in smart tariffs to expand connected customers, UK regulatory costs, and scaling efforts in non-UK retail and Energy Services. Despite the loss, Octopus added approximately 1.2 million customer accounts in six months, including 0.8 million outside the UK, underscoring its rapid international growth trajectory.

Customer Growth and Battery Storage Expansion

Origin’s customer accounts grew by 96,000 in the half, bolstered by acquisitions such as Energy Locals and 1 Energy, with further growth expected. The company’s focus on digital innovation and AI has improved customer experience, reflected in a Customer Happiness Index rising to 71%.

On the infrastructure front, Origin’s battery storage program is advancing well. The Eraring battery stage 1 became operational in December 2025, with stage 2 expansion now committed at $80 million, extending storage capacity to nearly six hours. The Supernode battery is undergoing commissioning, and the overall battery investment program remains on track, supporting Origin’s transition to cleaner energy.

Financial Position and Dividend Stability

Origin maintains a strong balance sheet with an adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.0x, at the lower end of its target range. The company declared a fully franked interim dividend of 30 cents per share, stable from the previous year, offering a dividend yield of 5.3% before franking benefits. Adjusted free cash flow improved to $705 million, reflecting solid cash generation and disciplined capital allocation.

Strategic Outlook and Market Positioning

Looking ahead, Origin updated its FY26 guidance, raising Energy Markets EBITDA expectations to a range of $1.55 to $1.75 billion, driven by stronger electricity performance and battery contributions. Integrated Gas production guidance remains steady at 645–680 petajoules, with capex and opex forecast between $2.9 and $3.2 billion. Origin also continues to progress the formal separation of Kraken Technologies, highlighted by a successful $US1 billion equity raise and a valuation of US$8.65 billion, positioning Kraken for accelerated global growth.

Origin’s strategy remains focused on leading the energy transition through expanding renewables and storage, optimising core assets, and leveraging technology platforms like Kraken and Octopus Energy to capture growth opportunities domestically and internationally.