Supply Shortfall in Asia Puts Pressure on BCI’s Salt Price Forecasts

Mardie Project Progress and Operational Update

BCI Minerals has provided a comprehensive update on its flagship Mardie Salt and Potash Project at the Euroz Hartleys Institutional Conference, confirming that the project is advancing on schedule and within budget. The company anticipates first salt shipment in the second half of calendar year 2026, with operational pond levels stable and the crystalliser fill program having commenced in March 2026. The crystalliser surface area is set to increase to 57% by the end of 2026, underpinning the ramp-up of production capacity.

Operational density levels in Pond 9 are reported between 1.18 and 1.22 kilograms per litre, reflecting steady-state conditions. The project’s infrastructure, including the Port of Cape Preston West, is nearing 94% completion, ensuring efficient logistics for export markets.

Strong Market Position and Offtake Agreements

BCI has secured three binding offtake agreements with tier-one customers across key Asian markets including China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. These agreements cover 62% of forecast production for the first three years, providing a solid foundation for revenue generation. Pricing for calendar year 2027 has already been negotiated, with terms set in the second half of 2026. The contracts include options for extensions, reflecting confidence in long-term demand.

Market analysis from Wood Mackenzie highlights a looming supply shortfall in Asia, which is expected to positively influence salt prices. BCI’s marketing strategy targets committed sales of 70% to 80% of production, with the remainder sold on the spot market, positioning the company to capitalise on favourable pricing dynamics.

Financial Strength and Sustainability Credentials

The project is fully funded, with $566 million in available liquidity as of 28 February 2026, providing a 1.6 times coverage of the estimated remaining construction costs. Additionally, $214 million is earmarked for ramp-up working capital. Long-term lending facilities, including a $490 million loan from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) maturing in 2039, underpin the capital structure.

BCI emphasises the sustainable nature of the Mardie operation, with 99% of energy required for salt production derived from renewable sources such as solar and wind. The project’s long-life assets, expected to operate for over 60 years, promise resilient and predictable cash flows with positive operating cash flow forecast from fiscal year 2028 and free cash flow from 2029.

Sulphate of Potash Pilot Plant and Diversification Potential

Beyond salt, BCI is advancing the commercialisation of Sulphate of Potash (SOP), a premium fertiliser with a global market valued at US$4.7 billion. Laboratory tests have confirmed the potential to extract SOP from Mardie’s KTMS crystals. A 12-month pilot plant trial commenced in 2026 to validate production of approximately 140,000 tonnes per annum, with plant design finalised and operational data collection underway.

This diversification could enhance the project’s value proposition by tapping into high-demand fertiliser markets, complementing the core salt business and leveraging the abundant seawater resource.

Outlook and Forward-Looking Considerations

While BCI’s forward-looking statements are grounded in reasonable assumptions and supported by binding contracts and market analysis, the company acknowledges risks inherent in project development and commodity markets. Seasonal variability in operational pond levels and external demand-supply dynamics could influence outcomes. Nonetheless, the Mardie Project’s progress, funding status, and strategic positioning suggest a promising trajectory for BCI Minerals in the salt and potash sector.