St Barbara Limited forecasts a sharp rise in gold production to 191 koz by FY30, driven by the New Simberi expansion, Touquoy Restart, and 15-Mile Processing Hub. The company is well-capitalised with over A$500 million in cash and committed capital expenditure plans.
- Gold production expected to increase from 48 koz in FY27 to 191 koz in FY30
- Fully funded for US$315 million initial capital across key projects
- New Simberi and Nova Scotia projects offer long mine lives and competitive costs
- 15-Mile Processing Hub delivers strong economics with under one-year payback
- Touquoy Restart approved, targeting ore processing by end 2026
Sharp Production Growth Anchored by New Simberi and Nova Scotia
St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) is aiming for a near fourfold increase in attributable gold production over the next four years, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% from 48,000 ounces in FY27 to 191,000 ounces in FY30. This surge is underpinned by the company’s 40% stake in the New Simberi Gold Project in Papua New Guinea and its wholly owned Nova Scotia assets in Canada, which include the recently permitted Touquoy Restart and the 15-Mile Processing Hub Project.
The production ramp-up is a direct result of the Final Investment Decision (FID) on New Simberi, announced in April 2026, coupled with the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for 15-Mile and the Touquoy Restart approval earlier this month. The company’s Managing Director Andrew Strelein highlighted the significance of these milestones, noting the combined impact on production growth and the company’s strong funding position.
Robust Funding Position Secures Development Path
St Barbara enters this growth phase with a robust balance sheet, holding A$504 million in cash and bullion plus A$24 million in listed investments, following the completion of the strategic Lingbao transaction in early April 2026. This transaction, which injected A$389 million in cash, ensures the company is fully funded for the capital-intensive development of its key projects, with initial capital expenditure planned at US$108 million for New Simberi (40% share), US$6 million for Touquoy Restart, and US$201 million for the 15-Mile Processing Hub.
Capital outlays will be spread across FY27 to FY33, with growth capital requirements extending beyond initial investments. The company expects to fund these commitments from its existing cash reserves and operating cash flow generated from remnant Simberi oxide ores and the Touquoy Restart, which is on track to resume ore processing by the end of calendar 2026.
Project Economics and Mine Life Support Competitive Costs
New Simberi’s life of mine (LOM) plan spans 14 years, with an anticipated average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,336 per ounce on a 40% attributable basis. Production is forecast to reach approximately 100,000 ounces per annum, driven initially by oxide ores and then sulphide processing, following a slight six-month delay in ramp-up relative to the feasibility study.
The 15-Mile Processing Hub, leveraging the existing Touquoy processing plant, boasts an 11.4-year mine life with an average AISC of US$1,188 per ounce. The PFS projects a post-tax payback period of less than one year at a gold price of US$3,000 per ounce, generating cumulative post-tax free cash flow of approximately A$2 billion over the LOM. Production from 15-Mile is expected to commence in FY29, following the Touquoy Restart phase, with a stable output profile supported by optimised mining sequences across multiple deposits.
Meanwhile, the Touquoy Restart project, recently granted permit amendments by the Nova Scotia Department of Environment and Climate Change, will process remnant medium and low-grade stockpiles over a 13-month period. The project is expected to produce around 38,000 ounces at an AISC midpoint of US$1,598 per ounce, with initial capital of approximately US$6 million. This restart is anticipated to generate significant cash flow, complementing the company’s funding strategy for its growth projects, as detailed in the recent permit nod for Touquoy Restart.
Balancing Growth Ambitions with Execution Risks
While the production outlook is ambitious, the company’s plans hinge on the successful execution of multiple large-scale projects across different jurisdictions. Capital estimates carry a wide +/-25% range, reflecting typical uncertainties in mining project development. The ramp-up timelines, particularly for New Simberi and 15-Mile, will be critical to achieving the forecast CAGR. Investors should also note that sustaining capital and operating costs are subject to commodity price volatility and operational factors.
St Barbara’s recent strategic moves, including the Lingbao transaction and regulatory approvals, have positioned it well to pursue this growth trajectory. However, the company’s ability to deliver on these projects will be watched closely, as will the gold price environment that underpins project economics.
Bottom Line?
St Barbara’s aggressive production growth is well funded but hinges on timely execution of multiple projects with varying risk profiles.
Questions in the middle?
- How will St Barbara manage capital expenditure risks amid fluctuating gold prices?
- What are the potential operational challenges in ramping up New Simberi and 15-Mile simultaneously?
- Could delays in regulatory approvals or supply chain issues impact the Touquoy Restart timeline?