Funding and Technology Risks Shadow Anson’s Green River Lithium Development

Scoping Study Positions Green River Among Lowest Cost Lithium Projects

Anson Resources (ASX:ASN) has delivered a scoping study for its Green River Lithium Project in Utah that confirms it as a future low-cost lithium carbonate producer. The study, prepared by Burns & McDonnell, estimates operating costs at US$3,837 per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), placing Green River in the first quartile of the global cost curve. Capital costs are also comparatively low at approximately US$568 million upfront, underpinning a base-case pre-tax net present value (NPV) of US$1.37 billion and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 27.5% at an 8% discount rate.

The project targets 10,000 tpa lithium carbonate production starting in 2029, with a 20-year mine life supported by a JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate of 773,000 tonnes LCE, of which 91.5% is Indicated. The study highlights multiple cost advantages including high reservoir pressure (4,500–5,500 psi), proprietary chemical-free iron removal technology, and the benefit of existing nearby infrastructure such as power, water, rail, road, and gas. These factors combine to reduce both capital and operating expenditures.

Robust Economics and Clear Pathway to Development

The scoping study outlines a capital expenditure estimate of US$568 million, which includes direct and indirect costs plus a 25% contingency allowance suitable for a conceptual level assessment. Operating costs are broken down into energy, chemicals, fixed costs, media, waste, and water, with chemicals and energy being the largest contributors. Anson’s proprietary iron removal process is expected to reduce reagent consumption and improve overall process efficiency.

Financial modelling incorporates lithium price forecasts from Benchmark Minerals, with a base-case lithium price of US$16,465 per tonne in 2029 rising to US$30,123 by 2040. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the project’s NPV is most sensitive to lithium price fluctuations, with a ±20% change in price impacting pre-tax NPV by approximately ±US$460 million, or 34%. Capital and operating cost variations have a more modest effect, each shifting NPV by about ±8%. This reflects the project’s strong operating margin driven by low C1 operating costs.

Anson has secured a definitive offtake agreement with Korea’s LG Energy Solution for 40% of the annual lithium carbonate production, providing a degree of revenue certainty. The company is advancing a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) expected to reduce capital and operating cost estimate uncertainties to ±25%, progressing towards a Final Investment Decision (FID). The DFS will take approximately 6–7 months, followed by a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study of similar duration. Construction is estimated to take 24–30 months thereafter.

Resource Upgrade and Permitting Milestones

The study is based on an upgraded JORC resource estimate announced in early May 2026, which expanded the Green River resource by 650% to 773,000 tonnes LCE, predominantly Indicated. This upgrade was driven by new drilling data and expanded land holdings. The resource is hosted in the Mississippian Leadville Limestone aquifer, characterised by high lithium concentrations averaging 127.8 mg/L and consistent porosity around 6%. The project benefits from brine reservoir pressure that naturally aids lithium extraction, and Anson’s proprietary chemical-free iron removal process enhances purity and reduces costs.

Permitting is well advanced, with the recent approval of the updated Small Mining Operating (SMO) notice marking the last major government approval needed before construction. Anson has also executed a Community Benefit Agreement with Green River City and a memorandum of understanding with Utah State University to develop lithium workforce training programs. The project’s strategic location adjacent to major highways, railways, power, gas, and fibreoptic infrastructure further de-risks development.

Technology Selection and Process Design

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology is central to the project’s design. Multiple DLE technologies were evaluated, with the preferred process selected based on financial returns, recovery rates, scalability, and technical maturity. The flowsheet integrates brine pretreatment using Anson’s patented non-chemical iron removal, lithium extraction, and onsite refining to battery-grade lithium carbonate. This integrated approach supports a modular design allowing operational flexibility and scalability.

The company recently announced a partnership with POSCO Holdings to build a lithium extraction demonstration plant at Green River, aiming to validate proprietary DLE technology ahead of commercial scale-up. This collaboration is a key step in de-risking the technology and advancing the project’s commercial readiness lithium extraction demonstration plant.

Market and Funding Risks Remain

While the study presents compelling economics, Anson cautions that the scoping study is preliminary with a ±50% accuracy range and relies partly on inferred resources, which carry geological uncertainty. The company estimates a funding requirement of approximately US$568 million to reach production, but there is no guarantee that capital can be raised on acceptable terms, and potential dilution of existing shareholders remains a risk.

Moreover, the project’s financial outcomes are highly sensitive to lithium price volatility, which remains unpredictable amid evolving global supply-demand dynamics. The scalability and commercial viability of DLE technology, though promising, are still under development and require successful pilot testing and engineering validation to confirm operating cost assumptions.

Anson’s US subsidiary, A1 Lithium, has recently joined a US Defense Industrial Base Consortium, reflecting increasing government interest in securing critical mineral supply chains. This may open avenues for strategic funding and partnerships aligned with US critical minerals priorities, potentially benefiting Green River’s development defense consortium membership.