GTN Forecasts FY26 Revenue Down 14-17% to $150-155 Million

Sharp Earnings Decline Reflects Market Challenges

GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) is bracing shareholders for a significant earnings contraction in FY26, with adjusted EBITDA expected to fall between 40% and 52% compared to the previous year. The company forecasts revenue to drop 14% to 17%, landing in the $150 million to $155 million range, down from $180.2 million in FY25. This steep decline mirrors the tough trading conditions GTN has encountered across its key markets during the year.

The earnings setback follows a similar trend seen in the first half of FY26, where revenue and EBITDA fell by 15% and 53% respectively, underscoring the persistence of headwinds in the broadcast media advertising sector.

Capital Management Anchored by Strong Dividend Payout

Despite the earnings pressure, GTN’s board plans to reward shareholders with a final FY26 dividend of approximately $10 million, equating to about 5 cents per share and an eye-catching yield near 29%. This dividend remains subject to bank approval and the completion of the annual audit, with final details to be confirmed alongside the full year results.

The company’s balance sheet remains resilient, with closing cash projected between $28 million and $32 million before the dividend payment. Net debt is expected to be modest, ranging from $3 million to $7 million at June 30, 2026, even after returning $45.8 million to shareholders through a capital return in August 2025 and an interim dividend earlier this year. This financial position is supported by positive operating cash flow, improved working capital, and proceeds from the sale of aviation assets, consistent with prior half-year disclosures.

Cost-Cutting Measures Set to Boost FY27 Earnings

GTN has been actively pursuing cost-out initiatives throughout FY26, aiming to counterbalance the revenue decline. These efforts, highlighted in the company’s half-year results, are expected to yield incremental benefits in FY27, with adjusted EBITDA forecast between $15 million and $20 million. This would represent a substantial recovery from FY26’s subdued earnings.

In line with its disciplined capital approach, the board intends to distribute 100% of net profit after tax to shareholders in FY27, signalling confidence in the company’s cash generation and financial flexibility going forward.

Outlook Hinges on Market Stability and Execution

GTN’s forecasts and dividend plans remain contingent on several variables, including foreign exchange rates, actual financial performance, and bank consent. The board retains discretion to adjust distribution intentions as circumstances evolve. The company does not anticipate updating its guidance before the release of its full year results unless there is a material deviation from current expectations.

GTN’s core business model, providing traffic and information reports to major radio networks across Australia, the UK, Canada, and Brazil, continues to offer advertisers broad reach and frequency. However, the recent financial results reflect the challenges facing broadcast media advertising platforms amid shifting market dynamics.