Aspire’s 130.1Mt Ovoot Reserve Survives a Cheaper Start

Ovoot Reserve Holds at 130.1Mt

Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) has preserved the headline asset in its Ovoot Coking Coal Project: a 130.1 million-tonne JORC Coal Reserve, comprising 76.8Mt Proved and 53.3Mt Probable. The corresponding Marketable Coal Reserve remains 97.9Mt, based on production of a washed coking coal product targeting 9.0% ash and 10.0% total moisture.

The update, prepared by Glogex Consulting LLC as at 31 March 2026, is therefore not a geological reset. The underlying resource model, pit limits, mineable inventory, mining sequence and reserve classification remain unchanged from Aspire’s November 2024 estimate. The resource totals 219.4Mt, although the production plan also draws on material outside the reserve classification.

Lower Upfront Capital Changes the Development Case

The more consequential change is financial rather than geological. Aspire’s revised project model assumes a staged development built around rented mining equipment for the first three years, contracted road haulage for the first five years, deferred non-critical site infrastructure and vendor-supplied or leased facilities.

That approach puts forecast Phase 1 pre-production capital at US$61.2 million from 2026 to first scheduled production, excluding about US$24.6 million of working capital and capital expenditure incurred through 31 December 2025. The model also incorporates the executed US$69.9 million EPC contract with CCTEG-IEC for the coal handling and preparation plant and Erdenet Rail Terminal infrastructure.

The figures are not directly comparable with the previous estimate, which forecast US$214.8 million of capital to first revenue and assumed earlier ownership of mining and haulage fleets. Aspire says the difference reflects expenditure already incurred, changed asset ownership and financing structures, rather than a simple reduction in the project’s total cost. Total forecast capital expenditure over the mine life is US$1.26 billion, including US$1.04 billion of sustaining capital.

US$1.48bn NPV Rests on Financing and Coal Prices

Using a long-term real coking coal price assumption of US$230 a tonne delivered duty paid to Erlian, China, and a 10% real post-tax discount rate, the updated model produces a post-tax NPV10 of US$1.483 billion and a post-tax real IRR of approximately 60%. That NPV is below the US$1.58 billion reported in the previous estimate, with the comparison affected by revised project timing, financing costs and asset ownership assumptions.

The funding plan assumes Aspire’s Mongolian subsidiary Khurgatai Khairkhan will raise about US$126.0 million through multiple OTC bond tranches. The model applies a 12% annual coupon, quarterly payments, a 24-month tenor and broker success fees of about 3%, alongside roughly US$42.0 million of deferred EPC payments supported by vendor-financing arrangements. Aspire is explicit that these are modelling assumptions, not committed funding.

Production Still Depends on a Long Infrastructure Chain

The development plan targets initial ROM production of about 1.5Mtpa, rising to 2.5Mtpa and ultimately 5.0Mtpa after a Phase 2 expansion. First production is modelled for the fourth quarter of 2027, with the project expected to operate for about 31 years after commissioning.

That schedule assumes the CHPP and rail terminal are completed, the Murun-Uliastai Highway is delivered under the proposed PPP/BOT structure, sufficient rail capacity is available, and power, water and outstanding approvals arrive on time. The remaining dependencies include the highway PPP agreement, statutory approvals for ERT and transportation-hub infrastructure, and confirmation of logistics arrangements across Mongolia’s road and rail network.

Inferred Coal Adds a Measurable Qualification

Around 52% of scheduled ROM coal comes from Measured Resources within Proved Reserves and 36% from Indicated Resources within Probable Reserves. The remaining 12% comes from Inferred Resources, including approximately 14.1Mt of Inferred coking coal and 3.6Mt of weathered thermal coal.

That material cannot currently be converted into Proved or Probable Reserves. Aspire says the Inferred coking coal is predominantly scheduled late in the mine life and that excluding it would not undermine the project’s technical or economic viability, but the production target and forecast financial information still include it. With no production yet available for reconciliation, the gap between the model and the operating mine remains the central test of the numbers.