Nufarm targets stronger earnings and a sharper drop in leverage
Nufarm expects FY26 underlying EBITDA to rise about 25% at the midpoint of its $370 million to $380 million range, while leverage falls from 2.7 times to approximately 2.0 times. The improvement comes alongside a sweeping cost-reduction program, but restructuring charges of up to $110 million post tax remain in the numbers.
- FY26 underlying EBITDA forecast at $370 million to $380 million
- Leverage expected to fall to approximately 2.0 times
- Seed Technologies leads earnings growth through Hybrid Seeds and Omega-3
- $50 million of run-rate savings targeted by end-FY27
- Material items forecast at $90 million to $110 million post tax
EBITDA Growth and Lower Leverage
Nufarm Limited (ASX:NUF) expects to emerge from FY26 with a markedly stronger earnings and balance-sheet profile, forecasting underlying EBITDA of $370 million to $380 million. At the midpoint, that represents approximately 25% growth on FY25, while leverage is expected to decline to about 2.0 times at 30 September from 2.7 times a year earlier.
The company attributed the expected leverage improvement to stronger earnings, positive free cash flow and disciplined working capital management. The figures remain preliminary and subject to audit, so the outlook is a management expectation rather than a final result. Nufarm is scheduled to report its audited FY26 results on 19 November 2026.
Seed Technologies Leads Segment Improvement
Seed Technologies is expected to deliver strong year-on-year growth in underlying EBITDA, driven by Hybrid Seeds and improved Omega-3 pricing. Crop Protection, by contrast, is expected to be broadly in line with the prior corresponding period, with foreign exchange headwinds, manufacturing disruptions and softer North American market conditions limiting its contribution.
That split makes the headline growth less uniform than the group figure suggests. The filing points to a stronger performance from the seed portfolio while the larger Crop Protection business holds broadly steady, leaving the November results to establish how much of the improvement came from operating momentum and how much from pricing, currency and working-capital movements.
Site Closures Support $50 Million Savings Target
Nufarm is pressing ahead with a strategy refresh designed to simplify the business, lower its cost base and improve returns. Actions include the planned closure of the Alsip manufacturing facility in the United States, the previously announced Kwinana closure and accelerated SKU rationalisation. The company remains on track to deliver $50 million of run-rate cost savings by the end of FY27.
Those changes come with a near-term accounting cost. Material items are expected to total between $90 million and $110 million post tax in FY26, primarily non-cash and linked to the strategy refresh, site rationalisation and the Kwinana and Alsip closures. The key test now is whether the projected savings and cash generation arrive quickly enough to offset the disruption and restructuring burden as Nufarm moves into FY27.
Bottom Line?
Nufarm has set a constructive FY26 trajectory, but the audited result and evidence of recurring savings will determine whether lower leverage marks a durable improvement rather than a single-year step-up.
Questions in the middle?
- Will FY26 underlying EBITDA land within the $370 million to $380 million forecast range after audit?
- How quickly will the Alsip and Kwinana closures translate into the targeted $50 million of run-rate savings?
- Can Seed Technologies sustain its growth contribution while Crop Protection faces currency, manufacturing and North American market pressure?
