Anson Resources has raised Green River’s modelled post-tax NPV8 to approximately US$1.046 billion after incorporating two conditional Utah incentives. The uplift leaves the project’s US$569 million capital estimate and lithium-price assumption unchanged, but the benefits remain tied to construction, performance and financing milestones.
- Post-tax NPV8 rises by approximately US$150 million to US$1.046 billion
- Pre-tax NPV8 increases 10.9% to US$1.523 billion
- US$193.996 million UIPA incentive and approximately US$212 million REDTIF credit included
- Gross upfront capital estimate remains US$569 million
- Definitive feasibility study and incentive agreements remain outstanding
Utah incentives add US$150 million to Green River’s modelled value
Anson Resources Limited (ASX:ASN) has lifted the modelled post-tax NPV8 of its Green River Lithium Project to approximately US$1.046 billion, up from US$896 million in the June scoping study. The increase comes from incorporating two Utah government incentive programs, rather than changing the assumed lithium price.
Pre-tax NPV8 rises from US$1.373 billion to US$1.523 billion, a 10.9% improvement. The post-tax result increases by 16.7%, with both measures gaining approximately US$150 million. The gross upfront project capital estimate remains unchanged at US$569 million, while the model continues to use a base-case lithium carbonate price of US$16,465 per tonne.
Two conditional Utah programs underpin the uplift
The largest modelled support comes from the Utah Inland Port Authority, which approved a business incentive capped at US$193.996 million. Based on 50% of projected property-tax growth in the Castle Country Project Area, it may be available for up to 25 years if the project is completed and continues operating. The earlier UIPA incentive approval allowed for either tax rebates or infrastructure financing.
Anson has begun discussions with UIPA about using part of that tax differential to support a third-party bond for eligible infrastructure, including power, water, gas, rail and roads. The filing says a combination of annual rebates and bond-supported infrastructure financing may also be possible, but the final structure has not been settled.
The second component is an approximately US$212 million post-performance refundable tax credit approved under Utah’s Rural Economic Development Tax Increment Financing program. Anson has modelled the credit as being earned evenly over 20 years, equivalent to about US$10.6 million a year. The earlier US$212 million tax credit was described as dependent on the project proceeding, generating tax revenue and meeting scheme conditions.
Scoping study economics remain preliminary
The improved valuation is based on the same broad operating assumptions as the June study, including planned production of 10,000 tonnes a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, a 20-year operating life, estimated C1 costs of US$3,837 per tonne and an 8% discount rate. Anson says no higher lithium-price assumption was used to create the uplift.
That does not make Green River immune to lithium prices. The company continues to flag exposure to commodity prices, construction and operating costs, financing, tax treatment and project timing. The incentive amounts are maximum or approved figures rather than unconditional cash commitments, and their value will depend on qualifying investment, employment, tax generation, annual verification, final agreements and continued operations.
Definitive feasibility study must convert value into financeability
Anson is now refining the model through its Definitive Feasibility Study, including the final UIPA financing structure, the timing of REDTIF credits, tax deductions, financing costs and updated engineering and construction assumptions. The company is also pursuing strategic investors and prospective project-finance providers, with the potential bond structure intended to reduce the infrastructure funding that must come directly from the project.
The important qualification is that Green River remains at scoping-study stage. Its production target includes Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources, and the study is not sufficient to establish an Ore Reserve or provide assurance that the project will be developed economically. The next test is therefore not another improvement in headline NPV, but whether the incentives can be documented, financed and carried through a feasibility study without materially increasing the capital burden.
Bottom Line?
The headline NPV has crossed US$1 billion, but the investment case still depends on converting conditional tax support into binding agreements, finance and a stronger feasibility-stage project.
Questions in the middle?
- How much of the UIPA incentive can ultimately be converted into infrastructure funding, and on what terms?
- Will the REDTIF credit arrive on the modelled schedule once construction, employment and tax performance are verified?
- Can Anson secure the remaining project funding without materially increasing shareholder dilution or capital costs?