Aura Energy’s Tiris uranium project has emerged from its bankable feasibility study with a US$500.3 million post-tax NPV and a target to produce by the end of 2028. The economics are substantial, but the funding package is not secured and nearly one-third of the mine plan relies on Inferred Resources.
- US$500.3 million post-tax NPV at US$90/lb uranium
- US$349.8 million development capital and 28% post-tax IRR
- 46.1 million pounds of saleable uranium over 26 years
- Ore Reserve rises 11% to 37.3 million pounds
- US$400 million funding assumption remains unsecured
Tiris clears the economic hurdle
Aura Energy’s (ASX:AEE, AIM:AURA) Tiris uranium project now has a stronger economic case on paper, with a bankable feasibility study putting post-tax net present value at US$500.3 million at an 8% real discount rate and a flat uranium price of US$90 a pound. The study produces a 28% post-tax internal rate of return and payback of 3.2 years from first production.
The project is designed to produce 46.1 million pounds of saleable U3O8 over a 26-year mine life, averaging about 1.8 million pounds a year. Development capital is estimated at US$349.8 million, while life-of-mine free cash flow is forecast at US$1.479 billion on an undiscounted, ungeared and 100% project basis.
Reserve growth supports a 2028 production target
Tiris’ updated Ore Reserve has increased 11% to 74.6 million tonnes at 227 parts per million uranium, containing 37.3 million pounds. That reserve comprises 31.5 million tonnes of Proved material and 43.1 million tonnes of Probable material, and on its own supports an 18-year mine life.
Aura’s full 26-year production target is larger than the Ore Reserve base. By ore tonnes, 67.1% of the schedule comprises Ore Reserves and 32.9% comprises Inferred Mineral Resources. The Inferred component is limited in the early years but rises to about 43% of ore mined from roughly year 16 onwards. Aura plans infill drilling before that material is mined, although the company states there is no certainty it can convert the resources or realise the production target.
A simple mine with a technically important flowsheet
The operating concept remains unusually uncomplicated at the mine face: shallow, free-dig ore that requires no drilling, blasting, crushing or grinding. Scrubbing and screening is expected to reject about 88% of the ore mass while retaining 91.9% of the uranium, lifting the leach feed grade roughly seven-fold to an average 1,697 ppm.
That simplicity has not removed all processing risk. The revised flowsheet uses Clean TeQ Water’s ATA dewatering system and moving-bed ion exchange, technologies that have been tested on Tiris material but are not yet operating at a commercial uranium mine. The company’s Tiris processing flowsheet had already been finalised ahead of the BFS, and a pilot plant at Bir Moghrein is due to process more than 80 tonnes of ore across the main ore types from November to December.
Funding is the decisive next milestone
The financial model assumes US$400 million of funding, comprising US$220 million of debt and US$180 million of equity, royalties or other quasi-equity. None of that funding is committed. Aura is in discussions with the US International Development Finance Corporation over roughly US$150 million to US$170 million of senior debt, while a non-binding MOU with a major nuclear utility covers potential strategic equity, offtake and technical cooperation.
The September quarter report adds a more immediate balance-sheet constraint: Aura held A$10.6 million in cash at 30 September, after net operating outflows of A$2.6 million and investing outflows of A$2.6 million. The company estimates about two quarters of funding at the reported expenditure rate, while saying it can phase discretionary spending if required. That leaves financing discussions, rather than the headline project NPV, as the near-term corporate test.
Pilot plant and FID set the timetable
Aura is targeting a final investment decision in December 2026, construction from the first quarter of 2027 and first production by the end of 2028. The pilot plant results are intended to give prospective financiers and their technical advisers evidence on recovery, dewatering, reagent consumption and process-water recycling before that decision.
The economic cushion is meaningful but price-sensitive. At US$70 a pound, the study’s post-tax NPV falls to US$221.2 million and payback stretches to 4.6 years; at US$120 a pound, NPV rises to US$914.6 million. The next question is whether Aura can turn a compelling feasibility model into binding finance, a tested flowsheet and a construction-ready project before its cash runway becomes the more urgent constraint.
Bottom Line?
Tiris now has a credible economic framework, but the investment case still depends on pilot results and binding project finance before the December FID target.
Questions in the middle?
- Will the November-December pilot plant confirm the ATA dewatering and full flowsheet assumptions across Tiris’ ore types?
- Can Aura secure the assumed US$400 million funding package without substantial equity dilution?
- How much of the later mine plan’s Inferred Resource can be converted before it is needed for production?