Critica’s Jupiter Scoping Study points to a potentially large Western Australian rare earths operation with a modelled pre-tax NPV of A$2.7 billion and after-tax NPV of A$2.0 billion. The headline economics remain preliminary, rely on modelled pricing and tax incentives, and require about A$556 million in pre-production capital that has not yet been secured.
- A$2.7 billion pre-tax NPV and 56.0% pre-tax IRR
- A$555.5 million estimated pre-production capital, with no funding secured
- 107.3 Mt Production Target, 96.6% underpinned by Indicated Resources
- 8.0 Mtpa open-pit, beneficiation and hydrometallurgical operation
- No Ore Reserve, binding offtake or contracted MREC pricing in place
Jupiter Scoping Study delivers large preliminary economics
Critica Limited (ASX:CRI) has put a sizeable number around its Jupiter rare earths project: an estimated pre-tax NPV of A$2.672 billion, after-tax NPV of A$1.985 billion and pre-tax IRR of 56.0% for a proposed Western Australian operation. The 8.0 Mtpa development would use conventional open-pit mining, beneficiation and hydrometallurgical processing to produce mixed rare earth carbonate, or MREC, over an approximately 14-year processing period.
The study is built on a 1.7 billion tonne Jupiter Mineral Resource grading 1,700 ppm TREO, including 160 million tonnes classified as Indicated. That higher-confidence component was established in the 160 Mt resource upgrade, which left most of the deposit in the Inferred category. The Scoping Study’s 107.3 Mt Production Target is more tightly defined: approximately 96.6% comes from Indicated Resources and 3.4% from Inferred Resources.
Capital hurdle sits alongside the modelled returns
Critica estimates pre-production capital at A$555.5 million, including A$63.0 million for mine establishment and A$493 million for construction. Sustaining and closure capital take total life-of-mine capital to about A$606.2 million. The estimate carries Scoping Study-level accuracy of approximately plus or minus 35%, and the company has not secured the funding required to build the project.
The financial model assumes construction begins in 2030 and first MREC sales in 2032. It also assumes a gross MREC basket value of US$52.80 per kilogram, 75% payability, an overall TREO recovery of 58% and approximately A$264.1 million of benefit from the Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive. None of those commercial or policy assumptions is locked in: Critica has no binding offtake or pricing agreement, and eligibility for the tax incentive remains subject to applicable requirements.
Metallurgy supports a beneficiation-first flowsheet
The proposed flowsheet first rejects much of the feed mass through magnetic separation and flotation, before treating the enriched concentrate with sulphuric acid baking, water leaching and impurity removal. Pilot-scale work has demonstrated about 71% TREO recovery and approximately 14-fold upgrading, while downstream testwork has produced MREC grading about 58% TREO.
Those results build on the second MREC result, which replicated a product grading close to 58% TREO. The Base Case nevertheless uses a lower 58% overall recovery than the process design basis of 63%, leaving technical work in the planned Pre-Feasibility Study to validate the integrated circuit and test whether recoveries, reagent consumption and product specifications can improve.
Resource scale and product options leave room for change
Only about 6% of Jupiter’s total Mineral Resource is included in the current mine plan. Critica says the remaining material could support future resource conversion, mine-life extension or expansion, although those possibilities are not part of the current economic case. The Base Case also excludes revenue from prospective magnetite-rich and hematite-rich iron concentrates, as well as gallium and scandium.
Commercial development is still at an early stage. The company has produced MREO and iron concentrate samples and is progressing customer qualification and discussions with potential offtake and strategic counterparties, following the release of Jupiter product samples. A representative MREC sample produced by GAVAQ is undergoing final analysis, while actual pricing, payability, customer acceptance and transport arrangements remain unresolved.
Pre-Feasibility Study is the next test
Critica plans to move into a Pre-Feasibility Study covering resource conversion drilling, mine optimisation, integrated pilot-scale metallurgy, water and tailings studies, environmental and heritage work, infrastructure definition, product qualification and funding. The project’s location near the Geraldton-Mount Magnet road and Geraldton port may assist the development concept, but groundwater supply, approvals, Native Title and cultural heritage requirements still require further investigation.
The economics are most exposed to the assumptions that are hardest to secure commercially. In Critica’s standalone sensitivities, a 20% fall in commodity prices reduces after-tax NPV to about A$1.1 billion from the A$2.0 billion base case, while a 20% increase lifts it to roughly A$2.8 billion. Until the company converts a preliminary study into a feasibility case, locks down product terms and demonstrates how the capital will be raised, Jupiter’s large NPV remains a modelled destination rather than a funded project.
Bottom Line?
Jupiter has cleared an important technical milestone, but the next value test is whether Critica can validate the flowsheet and secure roughly A$556 million without materially weakening shareholder economics.
Questions in the middle?
- Can the Pre-Feasibility Study confirm the 58% overall recovery and reduce the current plus or minus 35% capital uncertainty?
- Will Critica secure binding offtake or strategic funding on terms that support the assumed 75% MREC payability?
- How will groundwater, heritage, Native Title and approvals work affect the proposed 2030 construction timeline?