AVA’s new CEO starts FY27 with A$6.7m in bookings and a sharper growth plan

AVA starts FY27 with stronger bookings but no earnings guidance

AVA Risk Group Limited (ASX:AVA) has put a firm number on the early FY27 recovery it wants shareholders to believe in: A$6.7 million of first-quarter bookings, a 1.2 book-to-bill ratio and approximately A$7.2 million of backlog. The figures offer an encouraging start, but they are not yet evidence that the company has solved the conversion problem that blighted the prior year.

At its 2026 annual general meeting, AVA acknowledged FY26 revenue and other income of A$28.8 million and underlying EBITDA of approximately breakeven. Around A$6 million of anticipated opportunities shifted into FY27, the company said, with no material contracts reported lost or cancelled. The Chairman also conceded that the result exposed a deeper weakness than timing alone: too much of the business remained dependent on a small number of major programs converting on schedule.

New leadership targets commercial execution

Chief executive Bryant Henson, who commenced in August and is based in the United States, has framed FY27 as a year of focus. His priorities are operational discipline, better forecasting, tighter working-capital management, clearer accountability and a more coordinated approach across AVA’s Detect, Access and Illuminate divisions.

That reset builds on the Bryant Henson CEO appointment, which was announced as part of a US-led global expansion strategy. AVA also highlighted its relationship with Hale Capital, which the company says provides funding and networks across US government, enterprise and critical-infrastructure markets, alongside the appointment of retired Rear Admiral Terry McKnight to the board.

A$87m pipeline carries different levels of certainty

AVA said its FY27 pipeline stood at approximately A$87 million, including active opportunities carried over from FY26, with a further A$89 million of early-stage opportunities in later years. The pipeline includes 13 opportunities valued at more than A$1 million and spans the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe and the Middle East.

Those numbers require careful handling. AVA separates opportunities into high probability, in progress and early stage, and the figures are not contracted revenue. The company itself pointed to government budgets, trade restrictions, shutdowns and procurement delays as factors that can move order timing. Its stated task is therefore less about adding headline pipeline and more about improving qualification, forecasting and conversion into orders, revenue and cash.

Detect remains the clearest proof of the model

Detect is the strongest part of the existing platform. It generated A$19.3 million of segment revenue and other income in FY26 and A$2.43 million of segment EBITDA, while management presented an indicative revenue-less-materials margin of approximately 73%. The measure is unaudited and non-IFRS, but it illustrates why AVA believes higher deployment volumes and recurring services could improve earnings without costs rising at the same rate.

The company is seeking to extend that logic beyond individual product sales. Its strategy is to combine fibre-optic sensing, perimeter detection, illumination, access control and partner capabilities into broader security solutions, rather than approaching customers through separate product lines. AVA cited proof points across rail, airports, energy, borders, telecommunications and subsea infrastructure, while explicitly cautioning that trials and reference installations should not be mistaken for orders or national rollouts.

US expansion and divisional delivery become the test

The US is the centrepiece of the new commercial push, supported by Henson’s location, strengthened sales resources and the Hale Capital relationship. AVA also wants to expand locking sales through the dormakaba and UniKey relationships, increase Illuminate’s channel volumes and improve returns from Access, neither of which delivered an acceptable earnings outcome in FY26.

There is no numerical FY27 revenue or earnings guidance. That restraint leaves the next milestones unusually concrete: converting backlog, closing Detect opportunities, improving collections and working capital, and demonstrating that the company can turn customer validation into repeat deployments. The strategic case now depends less on whether AVA can identify attractive markets than on whether it can make its order flow less episodic.