Critica’s A$3bn project vision meets a 1.6-quarter cash runway

Two large project studies, one immediate funding problem

Critica Limited (ASX:CRI) has ended a milestone quarter with a striking mismatch between its modelled project value and its available cash. The company’s two 100%-owned Australian critical minerals projects now carry combined after-tax NPV8 estimates of about A$3.0 billion, while cash and cash equivalents stood at A$3.272 million at 30 September.

The September quarter report brings together the recently released economics for Mt Lindsay in Tasmania and Jupiter in Western Australia. Yet the figures remain preliminary: neither project has an Ore Reserve, neither development has secured the required capital, and the production targets include some Inferred Mineral Resources.

Mt Lindsay study points to a compact tungsten-tin development

Mt Lindsay’s scoping study outlines a 1.0 million-tonne-per-year underground operation with an after-tax NPV8 of approximately A$1.006 billion, a 55.6% after-tax IRR and a 1.9-year payback from commercial production. Pre-production capital is estimated at about A$244.5 million, with a 13.5-year mining schedule and modelled life-of-mine sales revenue of A$5.2 billion.

The plan is based on roughly 10.9 million tonnes of scheduled material, 92% of it from Indicated Resources and 8% from Inferred Resources. Tungsten accounts for approximately 75% of modelled life-of-mine revenue. The company says the underground concept uses the existing HEC Quarry disturbance and a granted Mining Lease, but the study carries an overall capital and operating cost accuracy range of approximately -25% to +50%. A 20% reduction in commodity prices would reduce after-tax NPV8 to about A$614 million.

Jupiter adds scale and product evidence

Jupiter’s post-quarter scoping study is larger on paper, modelling an 8.0 million-tonne-per-year rare earths operation with an after-tax NPV8 of approximately A$1.985 billion, a 48.4% after-tax IRR and a two-year payback. The proposed open-pit, beneficiation and hydrometallurgical operation requires estimated pre-production capital of about A$556 million and processes approximately 107.3 million tonnes over a 14-year processing schedule.

The study’s production target is 97% Indicated and 3% Inferred material, but represents only about 6% of Jupiter’s broader Mineral Resource. The economic case values the four principal magnet rare earths and yttrium in the MREC basket, while assigning no value to iron, gallium or scandium. Its assumed 75% payability remains dependent on final product composition, customer qualification, refining arrangements and commercial terms. The release of the Jupiter resource upgrade preceded the study, converting 160 million tonnes into the Indicated category while leaving most of the resource Inferred.

Technical work during the quarter supplied some physical evidence behind the processing route. Critica produced a second MREC grading 57.9% TREO, closely matching the earlier 57.8% result, alongside an MREO sample grading 98.2% TREO and a magnetite concentrate grading 64.1% iron. The company also reported sulphuric acid consumption of about one tonne per tonne of feed, approximately 30% below its earlier reference basis. Those results build on the Jupiter product samples released in September, which were intended to support potential offtake and strategic discussions; no binding agreement has been secured.

Cash runway puts execution ahead of the studies

Critica spent A$1.626 million on exploration and evaluation during the quarter, alongside A$328,000 in administration and corporate costs, and recorded net operating cash use of A$2.051 million. With no financing facilities available, the Appendix 5B calculates estimated funding of 1.60 quarters at the reported level of outgoings.

The company said it does not expect to maintain the current cash-flow level because it will align exploration spending with its cash position. It also said it expects to raise funds when required, while warning in the study disclosures that development capital has not been secured and equity funding could dilute existing shareholders. The next stage is therefore less about headline NPV and more about whether Critica can convert laboratory products, resource confidence and preliminary mine plans into funded DFS and PFS work.