Glencore’s copper gains and smelter restarts strengthen its 2026 finish

Marketing earnings expectation stays above $5 billion

Glencore plc (ASX:GLC) has held its 2026 production guidance after a quarter in which copper, nickel and coal volumes improved sequentially, while also saying Marketing Adjusted EBIT is expected to exceed $5 billion for the full year. The figure is an expectation rather than reported financial results, but it gives the update a more consequential edge than a routine production scorecard.

Chief executive Gary Nagle said the group’s key assets had largely performed in line with expectations and previously communicated guidance. The company expects zinc and energy coal to finish towards the upper ends of their ranges, copper and steelmaking coal towards the lower ends, and nickel around the middle.

Copper growth continues despite asset closures

Own-sourced copper production reached 598,600 tonnes in the first nine months, 3% above the comparable 2025 period. Once the Mount Isa copper mine closure and Kidd disposal are removed from the comparison, Glencore said production was 12% higher, driven principally by increased mining rates and improved grades at African Copper and higher grades at Antamina.

The result supports the direction of Glencore’s 1 million tonne copper target, although the current filing is focused on 2026 operating delivery rather than extending that target. African Copper production rose 37% year on year to 210,600 tonnes, while Antamina copper increased 36% to 122,300 tonnes. Those gains more than offset weaker output at Collahuasi and Antapaccay.

Glencore expects a fourth-quarter copper lift, mainly from higher grades and recoveries at Collahuasi. The operation was also affected by strong winds, power outages and heavy snowfall during the third quarter. Authorities are conducting a limited re-examination of aspects of the historical permitting of Collahuasi’s desalination project, although the company said no material impact on operations or current production guidance is expected.

Ferrochrome restarts add a second operating tailwind

Ferrochrome production rose 29% quarter on quarter to 125,000 tonnes as Glencore continued a phased restart of its South African smelting operations. Lion restarted earlier in the year, Boshoek restarted in September and Wonderkop in October, following new electricity pricing agreements with Eskom. Ramp-up is expected to continue through the fourth quarter.

The improvement remains measured against a depressed base: year-to-date ferrochrome production was still 46% below the comparable 2025 period, at 235,000 tonnes. Chrome ore production also fell 7% year on year, although third-quarter output was 11% above the second quarter.

Lower zinc, cobalt and coal volumes remain in the mix

Not every part of the portfolio improved. Zinc production fell 23% year on year to 547,200 tonnes, reflecting the end of the Lady Loretta mine, the Kidd disposal and planned lower zinc grades at Antamina. Cobalt production dropped 52% to 13,700 tonnes as Glencore retained more cobalt in solution amid the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export quota regime, with the company saying value is expected to be realised as regulations evolve.

Steelmaking coal was down 13% to 21.5 million tonnes, mainly because of lower throughput and yields at EVR, although quarterly output rose 14% from the second quarter. Energy coal was broadly stable at 73.9 million tonnes for the year to date. Glencore expects a fourth-quarter steelmaking coal improvement after pit sequencing, Australian plant upgrades and planned Canadian maintenance.