Pivotal’s Horden Lake economics sharpen as Quebec exploration expands

Horden Lake puts a A$920 million value on the table

Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX:PVT) has given investors a more tangible measure of its Horden Lake ambition: a maiden scoping study outlining a post-tax NPV₇ of A$920 million and a 49% post-tax IRR at base-case pricing. The study assumes A$411 million of net pre-production capital, with payback from first ore in 1.3 years.

The proposed operation would produce 247kt of copper equivalent over an initial 10-year life, including average production of 29.1ktpa over the first eight years. The study models a conventional open-pit mine and flotation plant, with a life-of-mine AISC of about US$1.00/lb copper after by-product credits. At the company’s stated spot-price assumptions, the post-tax NPV rises to A$1.343 billion and the IRR to 63%, although those figures are scenario outputs rather than forecasts of future prices.

The headline economics have now been formally incorporated into the quarter’s operating picture, following the maiden Horden Lake study that had already highlighted the project’s A$920 million NPV before funding and approvals.

Resource growth leaves room beyond the mine plan

Horden Lake’s updated mineral resource stands at 52.4 million tonnes grading 1.05% CuEq for 549kt of contained CuEq. The pit-constrained portion accounts for 45.5Mt at 1.07% CuEq and 485kt of contained CuEq, including 257kt of copper. Pivotal says the deposit remains open along its 2,800-metre strike and at depth, with much of the conductive horizon still untested.

That upside is not cost-free. The production target uses only part of the resource and includes inferred material, with inferred resources contributing no more than 30% of life-of-mine NSR and about 14% during the payback period. The company says the competent person considers that inclusion not to be a determining factor in project viability, but the announcement also warns there is no certainty inferred material will convert to higher-confidence categories or that the production target and forecast financial information will be realised.

The resource story has been building through the year: the Horden Lake resource expansion increased the MRE to 549kt CuEq and supported the September study. Pivotal’s next Horden Lake drilling campaign, planned for the 2026-27 winter field season, is intended to combine step-out drilling with infill work to grow the deposit and convert inferred mineralisation.

Metallurgy supports clean concentrates and financing options

Metallurgical work provided another important input during the quarter. A second locked-cycle test recovered 90.5% of copper into a clean concentrate grading 25.7% copper, while the scoping study uses a modelled life-of-mine copper recovery of 92% across the two-concentrate flowsheet. The project is designed to produce a copper concentrate carrying gold, silver and palladium credits, alongside a nickel concentrate carrying cobalt.

Those by-products are central to the low stated unit cost and to Pivotal’s financing ambitions. The company says the project has no binding offtake in place and has appointed a strategic adviser to assess non-equity funding, including options linked to precious-metal credits. That process is ongoing; no financing arrangement has been announced.

The result builds on the higher copper recovery testwork, which expanded the metallurgical database to 17 samples and supported the simple conventional flotation route. Future studies will still need to test the assumptions through more detailed engineering, permitting, community engagement and funding work.

Belleterre adds targets but not yet a second development story

At Belleterre, Pivotal completed five Lorraine Mine East holes for 988 metres on previously untested induced-polarisation targets east of the historic mine. Assays from the first three holes confirmed sulphide-bearing host rocks and a potential 1,000-metre mineralised trend, with the best reported interval measuring 2.4 metres at 0.18% copper, 0.06% nickel and 0.11g/t gold. Assays from two further holes are expected by early December.

Shanty Lake delivered a more qualified result. The initial hole did not return a significant assay, but follow-up downhole electromagnetics indicated it had passed beneath a shallower, more conductive target. That conductor remains untested. Pivotal also advanced the Bambino earn-in, adding a property that expands its Belleterre ground position by 25% and will be tested with a planned 60-line-kilometre IP survey.

The Bambino project option had earlier been presented as a way to consolidate the Midrim trend and prepare for geophysics and drilling. Under the option, Pivotal can earn 100% through cash, shares and C$500,000 of exploration expenditure over three years, with vendors retaining a 2% net smelter royalty.

Cash runway now sits behind the development pitch

Pivotal finished September with A$2.444 million in cash after spending A$861,000 on exploration and evaluation, A$79,000 on corporate and administration costs, and A$90,000 on director and related-party payments during the quarter. At the reported relevant cash-outflow rate of A$1.005 million, the Appendix 5B indicates an estimated 2.4 quarters of funding.

That balance is sufficient to support near-term drilling and study work on the filing’s stated assumptions, but it is not development funding for a project carrying A$411 million of net pre-production capital. The central financial question is therefore no longer simply whether Horden Lake’s scoping metrics look attractive. It is how Pivotal converts those metrics into a funded pre-feasibility, permitting program and a credible capital pathway without allowing the exploration timetable to outrun its cash position.