Nine Entertainment has maintained its forecast for revenue and EBITDA growth in FY27, while lifting its expected annualised cost savings target to at least A$180 million. Outdoor, Stan and digital publishing are carrying more of the group’s earnings, although Total Television revenue remains under pressure and shareholder support for executive remuneration was less emphatic.
- FY27 revenue and EBITDA growth outlook retained
- Annualised savings target raised to at least A$180 million
- Outdoor expects mid-teens H1 revenue growth
- News Bargaining Incentive cash payments not expected until H1 FY28
- Remuneration Report receives 65.49% support
Nine raises savings target while retaining FY27 growth guidance
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited (ASX:NEC) has kept its FY27 growth forecast intact and raised its cost-cutting ambition, now expecting annualised savings of at least A$180 million by the end of the financial year. That is around A$20 million above its previous three-year estimate of A$160 million, with the additional opportunities concentrated particularly in Streaming and Broadcast.
The guidance is not without qualifications. Nine expects EBITDA growth to be weighted towards the second half, and its outlook assumes a comparable level of Publishing licensing revenue in FY27 to FY26. The company also continues to describe the economic climate as uncertain, making the timing of the expected improvement as important as the headline target.
Outdoor and digital assets carry the growth case
Nine’s portfolio is increasingly tilted towards businesses it describes as growth engines. Outdoor is expected to deliver mid-teens revenue growth in the first half of FY27, supported by new sites and contracts in Australia and New Zealand, while full-year Outdoor EBITDA is expected to grow at a double-digit percentage rate. The company also expects Stan EBITDA to increase, led primarily by Stan Sport and the second season of its Premier League rights, which were previously secured through the 2033-34 season in the Premier League rights extension.
Total Television is the weaker part of the near-term picture. Q1 FY27 revenue fell 6% against the prior corresponding pro forma period, which Nine partly attributed to a later start for The Block and the impact of the FIFA World Cup and Commonwealth Games on other networks. Nine expects Q2 Total Television revenue to decline by a low single-digit percentage, while Total Television costs for FY27 are forecast to fall by a low single-digit percentage before the benefit of FY26 cost write-offs.
News payments offer potential revenue, but cash is later
Publishing digital subscription revenue rose 7% in Q1 FY27. Nine also intends to accrue an amount for the News Bargaining Incentive during FY27, following passage of the legislation, although it said the amount remains subject to further government clarity and that no direct qualifying deals are currently in place. The first cash payments under the scheme are not expected until the first half of FY28.
That timing matters. Nine is presenting the incentive as an annuity-style earnings stream alongside AI licensing agreements, including its arrangement with Microsoft Copilot and deals with Australian corporates. These initiatives could broaden the value extracted from Nine’s journalism, but the filing leaves the immediate cash contribution dependent on implementation, accounting treatment and the final policy settings.
QMS integration and sports rights reshape the earnings base
Nine says more than 60% of FY27 revenue and about 70% of EBITDA are expected to come from Outdoor, Streaming and Digital Publishing. Outdoor’s contribution includes the QMS acquisition, which delivered A$55 million of EBITDA in its first three months as part of Nine, while the company continues to target further contract momentum and synergies. The group’s sports portfolio also has longer visibility after the NRL rights agreement was extended through 2034, keeping the men’s and women’s State of Origin and Grand Finals exclusive to Nine.
The FY26 base was stronger on Nine’s continuing-business measures: revenue reached A$2.2 billion, EBITDA A$379 million and EBITDA margin 17.3%, with EBITDA up 17%. Net debt was A$658 million, equivalent to 1.7 times leverage. Ordinary dividends totalled 7.5 cents per share for FY26, while Nine cautioned that ordinary dividends in the near term will remain unfranked after the fully franked special dividend linked to the Domain sale.
AGM support exposes a remuneration fault line
Shareholders backed all resolutions put to the AGM, but the remuneration votes were notably less commanding than the director and QMS-related resolutions. The Remuneration Report received 65.49% support, while grants of performance rights to chief executive Matthew Stanton received 73.41% and 74.57% support for the 2026 and 2027 awards respectively. By comparison, the QMS financial-assistance resolution received 99.54% support and the three director resolutions each received more than 84%.
That leaves Nine with a favourable operating narrative and a clear execution test. The company must convert Outdoor momentum, Stan’s sports-led growth, publishing subscriptions and prospective news payments into cash while proving that the larger savings target does not weaken its content and technology investments. The next quarterly update will show whether the second-half weighting in the guidance is beginning to emerge, or merely remains a forecast.
Bottom Line?
Nine has improved the growth mix and lifted its savings ambition, but delivery depends on second-half momentum, QMS execution and the delayed conversion of news licensing into cash.
Questions in the middle?
- Can Nine deliver the forecast second-half EBITDA weighting while Total Television revenue remains under pressure?
- How much of the News Bargaining Incentive will be recognised in FY27, and what government clarity is still required?
- Will the higher savings target improve cash generation without compromising investment in content, technology and AI licensing?