Constellation’s nuclear growth engine gains momentum with higher guidance and new customer deals

Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CEG) raised its 2026 earnings guidance after third-quarter adjusted operating earnings jumped to US$5.06 per diluted share, up from US$3.04 a year earlier. GAAP earnings also rose sharply to US$5.19 per share from US$2.97, although the comparison includes the enlarged business following the Calpine acquisition in January.

Higher Earnings Support Raised 2026 Guidance

The company lifted and narrowed its full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance to US$12.50-US$12.80 per share, implying a midpoint of US$12.65. Management attributed the quarter’s performance primarily to favourable market and portfolio conditions and the addition of Calpine, partly offset by higher interest costs and a less favourable nuclear production tax credit portfolio.

The adjusted figure is a non-GAAP measure rather than a substitute for GAAP earnings. Third-quarter adjustments included US$73 million of Calpine merger and integration costs, US$39 million of amortisation linked to acquired commodity contracts and a US$127 million unrealised gain on fair-value items. Constellation reported US$9.55 billion of quarterly revenue, compared with US$6.57 billion a year earlier, while nine-month operating cash flow reached US$4.98 billion.

Customer Deals Underpin Nuclear Expansion

Constellation’s growth plan is increasingly tied to long-term customer commitments. A 20-year, 690MW power purchase agreement with Amazon is expected to support more than US$3 billion of investment at the Calvert Cliffs Clean Energy Center, including a 190MW expansion targeted for 2030 to 2032. A separate 20-year agreement with Google is intended to support more than US$4.3 billion of investment across 11 nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, adding about 890MW of capacity, with the first uprate expected in 2028.

The company also signed its first 270MW Peak+ agreement, a 20-year arrangement combining energy, capacity and nuclear attributes from the existing fleet with new capacity and demand-response products. Separately, Constellation agreed to acquire the 609MW Rhode Island State Energy Center, a gas-fired combined-cycle plant, from Shell Energy North America for US$715 million, subject to regulatory approval and other closing conditions.

DOE Financing Adds Flexibility to Uprate Programme

A conditional commitment from the US Department of Energy could provide up to US$5 billion in guarantees for an unsecured Federal Financing Bank loan supporting nuclear uprates. The proposed loan would have a 30-year term, with interest fixed at a spread of 0.375 percentage points above comparable US Treasury yields when each advance is made. The commitment remains conditional on execution of a definitive loan agreement.

Operationally, the nuclear fleet generated 46,677 gigawatt-hours in the quarter, slightly above the 46,477 gigawatt-hours recorded a year earlier. Excluding the Salem and South Texas Project stations, owned nuclear capacity factor improved to 97.2% from 96.8%. Constellation spent US$3.0 billion on share repurchases during the first nine months, while cash and restricted cash fell to US$1.01 billion at September 30 from US$4.09 billion at the end of 2025 and long-term debt rose to US$19.04 billion from US$7.25 billion.

That combination leaves the next phase of the story less about whether demand exists and more about execution: regulatory approval for the Rhode Island acquisition, conversion of the DOE commitment into funding, and delivery of the promised uprates without eroding the balance-sheet flexibility that has supported both investment and buybacks.