Take-Two keeps its forecast as Grand Theft Auto VI launch momentum builds

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTWO) is heading into the most consequential launch in its current pipeline with a weaker quarter behind it and its full-year forecast intact. Net Bookings fell 18% to US$1.60 billion in fiscal Q2, while management said pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI were reaching “unprecedented levels” ahead of the game’s November 19 release.

Grand Theft Auto VI drives the next-quarter reset

The company’s fiscal third-quarter outlook captures the expected launch impact. Take-Two is forecasting Net Bookings of US$3.35 billion to US$3.50 billion, total revenue of US$3.27 billion to US$3.42 billion and GAAP net income of US$250 million to US$276 million. Its forecast for non-GAAP EBITDA is US$651 million to US$698 million, compared with US$92.2 million in the latest quarter.

That is a substantial step-up from the September quarter, but it remains an outlook rather than a reported result. Take-Two says the assumptions include timely delivery and market acceptance of its titles, continued growth in the installed base of PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S consoles, stable foreign exchange rates and the performance of its mobile business.

Bookings decline as recurring spending softens

Fiscal Q2 GAAP revenue fell to US$1.50 billion from US$1.77 billion a year earlier. Recurrent consumer spending, covering virtual currency, add-on content, in-game purchases and advertising, declined 5% on a revenue basis and 9% on a bookings basis, although it still represented 81% of both measures.

Mobile remained Take-Two’s largest revenue platform at US$731.1 million, followed by console at US$615.4 million and PC and other platforms at US$150.5 million. The largest contributors included NBA 2K, the Grand Theft Auto series, Toon Blast, Match Factory!, Empires & Puzzles and the Borderlands franchise. Digital channels generated 97% of revenue and 98% of Net Bookings.

Net loss narrows despite operating loss

GAAP net loss narrowed to US$54.0 million, or US$0.29 a share, from US$133.9 million, or US$0.73 a share, in the comparable quarter. The improvement was helped by a US$57.9 million income-tax benefit and lower interest expense, while the company’s loss from operations widened to US$117.5 million from US$98.0 million.

Take-Two reported EBITDA of US$92.2 million, a non-GAAP measure that excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of acquired intangibles. The comparison with the US$54.0 million GAAP net loss is therefore not a like-for-like profit measure; the filing says the metric is intended to help management assess ongoing operating performance.

Full-year target depends on a concentrated launch cycle

Take-Two reiterated fiscal 2027 Net Bookings guidance of US$8.0 billion to US$8.2 billion, with revenue projected at US$7.98 billion to US$8.18 billion and GAAP net income at US$109 million to US$142 million. The company expects more than US$1.0 billion of operating cash flow and approximately US$290 million of capital expenditure.

The numbers place unusual weight on the commercial performance and delivery of Grand Theft Auto VI, even as NBA 2K27 and the company’s mobile and live-service portfolio provide the reported base. The results are preliminary, with final figures due in the next quarterly report. The immediate test is whether the November launch converts the company’s reported pre-order momentum into the bookings surge embedded in its third-quarter guidance.