Carnarvon adds high-confidence Pavo South well to 2027 drilling campaign

Pavo South joins Ara in firm 2027 campaign

Carnarvon Energy Limited (ASX:CVN) has turned its planned 2027 Bedout drilling program into a two-well campaign, adding Pavo South-1 alongside Ara-1. The new well targets 74 million barrels of oil equivalent on an unrisked Pmean gross basis and carries a 64% geological chance of success, according to the company.

Pavo South-1 is scheduled for late Q3 2027, subject to regulatory approvals and the allocation of a suitable rig. It will use a separate jack-up rig in about 90 metres of water, while Ara-1 remains on track for Q2 2027 using the contracted Transocean Equinox semi-submersible. The decision follows the earlier Ara firm well selection, which identified Ara as the likely first well in the campaign.

Pavo South offers a near-field route into Dorado

The attraction is not simply the size of the prospect. Pavo South sits near the Pavo oil field, discovered in 2022, where the company says Pavo-1 encountered hydrocarbons in the adjacent field. Carnarvon argues that proximity provides evidence for charge, reservoir quality, trap integrity and hydrocarbon retention in the Archer play system.

Carnarvon holds a 20% interest in WA-438-P, giving it a larger direct exposure to Pavo South than its 10% interest in the Ara prospect. A discovery could expand the Pavo cluster and, subject to appraisal and development planning, potentially allow oil to be tied back to proposed Dorado facilities. The nearby Pavo field is estimated at 43 million barrels of gross 2C oil resources, although Pavo South remains a prospective resource: it has yet to be discovered, appraised or shown to be commercially recoverable.

Exploration spending remains covered by cash

Carnarvon expects its share of the Ara-1 and Pavo South-1 costs to be about A$20 million, funded from A$97 million in cash at 30 September 2026. That provides a clear funding line for the drilling campaign, although the announcement does not provide a final development cost or commercial valuation for a successful Pavo South result.

The company has also said preparations for the campaign are advancing, including ancillary equipment contracting and Environment Plan approvals. The earlier Transocean rig contract established the drilling platform for the initial campaign plan; Pavo South still requires a suitable jack-up rig to be allocated.

Two wells create two different tests

Ara and Pavo South now give the campaign contrasting sources of potential value. Ara targets an untested northern fairway with 191 million boe of gross unrisked Pmean prospective resources and a 37% geological chance of success, while Pavo South is smaller but closer to a known oil discovery and carries the higher stated probability of geological success.

CEO Philip Huizenga said the two wells complete a “high impact Bedout drilling campaign” and described Pavo South as a “high-confidence, near-field opportunity” (ASX:CVN). The immediate test is less about the headline resource estimate than whether approvals, rig allocation and drilling execution convert that prospective resource into an actual discovery that can support appraisal and a Dorado-linked development case.