URW Targets 5.8-6.6% Annual EBITDA Growth and €4.50 Dividend in 2025

A Platform for Growth

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) has laid out an ambitious yet measured 2025-28 business plan, dubbed 'A Platform for Growth,' that aims to deliver steady EBITDA expansion and enhanced shareholder value. Central to the strategy is leveraging URW’s dominant retail assets in Europe and the US, alongside innovative revenue streams such as retail media and licensing.

The company targets annual EBITDA growth between 5.8% and 6.6%, driven by organic rental income increases from its flagship Westfield centres. These assets benefit from prime locations in affluent markets, high footfall exceeding 900 million visits annually, and superior sales intensity that outperforms peers by 26%. This organic growth is expected to be supported by indexation, rent reversions, occupancy gains, and market share expansion.

Retail Media and Licensing: New Revenue Engines

URW is betting on the expansion of Westfield Rise, its retail media platform, to capture the growing advertising potential within its shopping centres. With plans to increase net revenues to €180 million by 2028, Westfield Rise capitalizes on the captive, high-intent audience visiting URW’s centres. The company has invested in data analytics and GDPR-compliant audience measurement to enhance advertising effectiveness and pricing power.

Complementing this is a new licensing business, exemplified by a recent strategic partnership with Cenomi Centers in Saudi Arabia. This initiative aims to extend the Westfield brand internationally, targeting €25-35 million in annualised EBITDA by 2028. The licensing model offers a scalable, asset-light growth avenue that could further boost retail media revenues as the Westfield brand footprint expands.

Disciplined Capital and Development Pipeline

URW plans to maintain disciplined capital allocation with an annual capital expenditure of approximately €600 million from 2026 onwards. This includes maintenance, leasing, retail media investments, and development projects such as the recently opened Westfield Hamburg-Überseequartier and ongoing extensions in the US and Europe. The streamlined development pipeline limits future capex needs, while the company has identified up to €2 billion in non-core assets for potential capital recycling.

On the financial front, URW aims to reduce its net debt to EBITDA ratio to around 8.0x and loan-to-value ratio to 40% by 2028, down from 9.5x and 45.5% respectively in 2024. This deleveraging will be supported by €2.2 billion in planned disposals by early 2026, with over €1 billion already secured.

Shareholder Returns and Earnings Guidance

The group confirms its 2025 Adjusted Recurring Earnings Per Share (AREPS) guidance at €9.30-9.50, despite accelerated disposals. AREPS is expected to dip slightly to at least €9.15 in 2026 due to the mechanical impact of disposals, before growing 3-5% annually in 2027 and 2028 to reach €9.70-10.10. Shareholder distributions are set to increase significantly, with a proposed €4.50 per share for 2025, around 30% higher than 2024, and a payout ratio normalizing between 60-70% from 2027 onwards. Cumulatively, URW targets at least €3.1 billion in shareholder distributions over the plan period.

CEO Jean-Marie Tritant emphasized the strength of URW’s platform, highlighting the combination of prime retail assets, operational expertise, and innovative growth avenues as key to sustainable value creation. The plan balances growth ambitions with financial prudence, positioning URW to capitalize on evolving retail trends and urban regeneration opportunities.