Select Harvests expects a near-record FY26 almond crop and stronger pool pricing, but wet-weather harvesting has pushed operational costs to A$13.9 million. Net debt is forecast below A$65 million at year-end, leaving the key earnings impact for the full-year results.
- FY26 crop forecast of 28,800MT to 29,600MT
- Pool price rises to A$10.26/kg
- Operational costs increase to A$13.9 million
- External grower throughput reaches 13,800MT to 14,200MT
- Year-end net debt expected below A$65 million
Near-record crop meets sharply higher harvest costs
Select Harvests Limited (ASX:SHV) is heading towards one of its largest almond harvests on record, with FY26 crop production now expected at 28,800MT to 29,600MT. The upgrade in confidence comes despite late-February and early-March rainfall that exceeded 300% of average in some regions.
The operational catch is material. Costs linked to the wet harvest and other one-off items are now expected to total A$13.9 million, up from the A$6.9 million forecast at the half year. The company said additional drying, a longer processing period, Middle East conflict impacts and inflationary pressures contributed to a further A$7 million in second-half costs. The announcement does not quantify the resulting impact on full-year profit.
Almond volumes and pricing provide a partial offset
Select Harvests’ pool price has edged up to A$10.26 per kilogram from A$10.21/kg, supported by stronger almond prices. The company said 91% of the pool price is now hedged at US$0.665, while 81% of the 2026 crop has been sold or contracted.
External growers are expected to contribute 13,800MT to 14,200MT of throughput, an 88% to 94% increase on FY25. That range is below the previous guidance of 15,400MT, but still points to a much heavier load through Select Harvests’ drying and processing infrastructure. The company said roughly A$30 million of investment in a new pre-cleaner and dryer, kernel recovery equipment, shakers and capacity expansion was critical to handling the larger crop while maintaining quality.
Debt target keeps capital allocation in play
Despite the delayed and more expensive harvest, Select Harvests expects year-end net debt below A$65 million and gearing below 11%. It said cash flows from the larger crop and a strengthened balance sheet support its ongoing share buy-back program and the interim dividend paid in July.
The company also pointed to a favourable almond supply backdrop. Select Harvests said global prices have recently reached a 10-year high in US-dollar terms, with declining Californian supply, tighter groundwater regulation and rising growing costs cited as structural pressures. It expects those conditions to remain relevant over the next three to five years, although the price benefit for Select Harvests will still depend on market pricing, hedging and the final cost of processing this season.
Full-year results will settle the earnings question
The next hard data point is Select Harvests’ FY26 result, scheduled for 25 November. Until then, the central tension is straightforward: an exceptional crop and firmer almond prices are improving the operating opportunity, while the extra A$7 million of second-half costs makes the eventual conversion into profit less clear than the production headline suggests.
Bottom Line?
The crop is doing the heavy lifting, but the 25 November results will show how much of that benefit survived the wet harvest.
Questions in the middle?
- How much of the near-record crop and higher pool price will flow through to FY26 earnings after the A$13.9 million cost burden?
- Can Select Harvests sustain the sharply higher external grower throughput without another material increase in processing costs?
- Will almond prices remain elevated long enough to support debt reduction, buy-backs and dividends after the current hedge coverage rolls off?