A$311 million study sizes WOA’s proposed 10,000-tonne lupin plant

• 10,000-tonne-per-year proposed lupin protein facility in Western Australia
• Indicative facility revenue of A$240 million to A$295 million
• Estimated capital cost of approximately A$311 million, with ±30% accuracy
• No funding, offtake agreements or final investment decision secured
• Near-term focus remains contract manufacturing and process optimisation

A$311 Million Facility Remains a Concept

Wide Open Agriculture Ltd (ASX:WOA) now has an engineering blueprint for a proposed 10,000-tonne-per-year lupin protein facility in Western Australia, but not a project ready to build. The Industrial Scale Manufacturing Study estimates capital costs of approximately A$311 million in Q4 2025 Australian dollars, with an accuracy of about ±30% and a further 15% contingency included in the financial modelling.

The study’s model indicates annual facility revenue of about A$240 million to A$295 million at full nameplate production. That range reflects a 10% movement either way in assumed product prices, rather than contracted sales. WOA explicitly says the figures are not a production target, company guidance or a forecast of earnings, and that none of the modelled revenue is covered by offtake agreements.

Western Australia was selected as the preferred location because it produces more than 80% of the world’s lupins. The proposed operation would use WOA’s whole-of-seed processing technology to produce protein alongside fibre and oil. The announcement refers to up to 700 tonnes of lupin oil and 17,000 tonnes of fibre, while the study appendix uses modelled volumes of 730 tonnes and 17,500 tonnes respectively, as well as 11,900 tonnes of lupin hulls.

Contract Manufacturing Still Comes First

The large facility sits at the far end of WOA’s four-stage Building Better Economics strategy. The company’s immediate priorities are winding down its German manufacturing operations, moving to a capital-efficient contract manufacturing model and expanding sales of its lupin-based ingredients. That direction has already included the , while WOA has continued evaluating external production partners.

The completed study is intended to support that near-term model as much as the longer-term facility concept. Its process design, mass balances, yield assumptions, utility requirements and cost drivers will be used to identify ways to improve protein recovery, reduce energy and water consumption, and refine equipment selection. WOA also says the work gives it a stronger technical basis for selecting contract manufacturers and negotiating production terms, following , which were non-binding and did not secure production or revenue commitments.

Funding and Commercial Proof Remain Unresolved

WOA has not secured debt, equity, government or partner funding for the proposed facility, and the board has made no decision to proceed. Any future development is expected to sit in a standalone vehicle funded largely by external partners and debt, rather than WOA’s balance sheet, with the company’s potential ownership interest yet to be determined.

The study assumes a definitive feasibility study would begin during 2027, a final investment decision would follow in mid-2028 and construction and commissioning would take roughly 30 months, putting first production no earlier than 2031. Those figures exclude escalation and inflation, so both the capital requirement and eventual nominal revenue would be higher by that point. WOA has also withheld profitability and investment-return estimates, saying the assumptions require further validation.

The appendix puts the modelled price for standard lupin protein isolate at A$13,462 per tonne, compared with WOA’s stated current average selling price of A$18,500 per tonne. The comparison is not a like-for-like earnings guide: the facility model includes a different product mix, large-scale pricing assumptions and co-products, and the company has not disclosed the operating costs or returns needed to assess its economics.

Bottom Line?

The study turns a long-term manufacturing ambition into a quantified project, but the nearer-term investment case still rests on contract production, customer demand and better unit economics.

Questions in the middle?

• Can WOA convert its prospective manufacturing relationships into binding production arrangements and recurring sales?
• Will process optimisation improve yields and costs enough to support the capital-light model?
• What funding structure, ownership share and validated returns would emerge if a definitive feasibility study begins in 2027?