US$44 million earnings and 14.0-14.5Mt 2026 production guidance

Guidance falls as Curragh reset gains traction

Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX:CRN) has improved its quarterly earnings while conceding that the operational recovery will take longer to reach reported production and cash generation. September-quarter earnings rose to approximately US$44 million, up US$7 million from the June quarter and the company’s highest quarterly result since Q2 2024.

The catch is material: 2026 saleable production guidance has been reduced to 14.0-14.5 million tonnes from 16-17 million tonnes, while average mining cash cost guidance has increased to US$105-110 per tonne from US$88-96. Capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at US$150-175 million. The downgrade reflects Buchanan’s geological disruption, slower progress at Mammoth, weaker-than-expected coal handling and preparation plant throughput, and the effects of foreign exchange and diesel costs.

Curragh reaches its strongest quarterly ROM output since 2020

Curragh provided the quarter’s clearest operational bright spot. ROM production rose 7.9% from the June quarter to 4.2 million tonnes, the highest quarterly total since Q3 2020, as the revised mine plan at Curragh South reduced waste movement and prioritised lower strip-ratio coal. Mining cash costs in Australia fell by US$18 million quarter on quarter, according to the report.

The reset is also changing what Coronado chooses to sell. Rather than bypassing ROM coal as lower-value thermal product, the company is building inventory for processing into higher-value products. Curragh ROM stocks reached about 830,000 tonnes at quarter end and are expected to reach roughly 1.5 million tonnes by year end, equivalent to about 1.1 million tonnes of saleable production at a 75% yield. The company’s reset strategy had been outlined in its Curragh reset program, but the September report makes clear that the strategy currently requires patience and tied-up working capital.

Buchanan fault and Mammoth delays weigh on volumes

Buchanan’s southern longwall encountered a geological fault that reduced ROM production by approximately 0.7 million tonnes compared with June and cut premium low-volatility metallurgical coal output. The affected zone has now been passed and longwall advance rates have largely returned to normal, although a planned longwall move in November is expected to affect December-quarter production. Buchanan produced approximately 1.8 million tonnes of ROM coal during the period, down from 2.5 million tonnes in the June quarter.

Mammoth’s underground ramp-up also remained below expectations, with extensive faulting affecting two panels. Meanwhile, plant reliability at Curragh continued to constrain the conversion of ROM coal into saleable tonnes. Those issues help explain the gap between improving mine-plan execution and the lower 2026 production forecast. Coronado expects the original 16-17 million tonne production range to reappear in its 2027 guidance, but that remains an expectation rather than a current-year result.

Higher coal prices support earnings and liquidity

Coal revenue increased to approximately US$558 million from US$506 million in the June quarter. Group realised metallurgical coal pricing rose to US$183.5 per tonne from US$170.5, while the premium low-volatility hard coking coal benchmark averaged US$248.1 per tonne. Sales reached 3.6 million tonnes despite lower production, helped by inventory drawdown, although port congestion left about 630,000 tonnes stockpiled and delayed vessels representing roughly US$50 million of revenue into the December quarter.

Available liquidity rose by US$57 million to US$155 million, supported mainly by a US$75 million prepayment from Glencore. Net debt fell to US$553 million from US$606 million at June quarter end. The balance-sheet improvement was accompanied by substantial cash timing effects, including inventory investment, interest, insurance and capital expenditure outflows, meaning the report described the underlying business as broadly cash neutral for the quarter excluding prepayment arrangements.