October slowdown tests JB Hi-Fi before Black Friday and Christmas

October Sales Slow Before Black Friday

JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX:JBH) is heading into its most important retail stretch with a softer sales trend than its record FY26 performance might suggest. The group said October sales had slowed ahead of Black Friday and Christmas, as customers remained focused on value and increasingly concentrated their spending around promotional events.

The warning came alongside a mixed first-quarter update covering 1 July to 30 September. JB Hi-Fi Australia’s total sales fell 0.4%, with comparable sales down 1.4%, while The Good Guys recorded a 0.1% decline in total sales and a 0.4% comparable-sales decline. e&s was weaker again, with total sales down 3.7% and comparable sales down 4.5%.

New Zealand Growth Offsets Australian Weakness

JB Hi-Fi New Zealand provided the clear counterpoint, with total sales rising 17.3% and comparable sales increasing 10.7%. The update extends the pattern flagged in the early FY27 trading, when Australian sales and The Good Guys were already showing signs of weakness while shoppers waited for promotions.

Management described trading as variable and competition as heightened, without attaching a profit forecast to the October commentary. The immediate test is whether sharper promotional activity during Black Friday and Christmas converts value-conscious shoppers into enough volume to offset softer underlying demand, particularly in the Australian businesses.

FY26 Results Provide a Stronger Starting Point

The group enters that test from a solid FY26 base. Total sales rose 4.8% to $11.06 billion, EBIT increased 5.8% to $734.4 million and NPAT attributable to JB Hi-Fi owners climbed 6.0% to $489.9 million. Earnings per share rose 5.9% to 448.1 cents, while the total ordinary dividend increased 22.5% to 337.0 cents per share, equal to 75% of NPAT.

Underlying growth was more measured after stripping out the one-off $13.7 million expense recorded in FY25 for the resolution of ACCC proceedings involving The Good Guys. On that basis, EBIT rose 3.8%, NPAT increased 2.9% and EPS grew 2.9%. Closing net cash of $206.5 million gives the group room to continue investing, although the filing does not establish how much of the planned expansion will translate into near-term sales or earnings.

Store Expansion Meets A Softer Trading Tape

JB Hi-Fi plans to open four Australian stores, two New Zealand stores and one The Good Guys store in FY27, alongside relocations and extensions. It also plans further investment in online fulfilment, marketplace sales, agent-based product search and larger home-delivery centres. For e&s, the group expects to migrate its website to Shopify in the second half of FY27 while building its commercial operation outside Victoria and assessing national store opportunities.

Those initiatives point to a business still investing for growth, but the next few weeks will determine whether its value proposition can overcome a more promotional retail environment. Black Friday and Christmas will provide the first substantial read on whether the October slowdown was a temporary pause before peak trading or an early sign of more persistent pressure on Australian demand.