PSEG has lifted its five-year regulated investment plan to US$22.5 billion to US$25.5 billion while maintaining its 2026 operating earnings guidance. The utility also outlined nuclear growth options and an indicative dividend increase, though several projects remain subject to regulatory approval.
- US$22.5 billion to US$25.5 billion regulated capital plan for 2026 to 2030
- 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance maintained at US$4.28 to US$4.40 per share
- Long-term non-GAAP operating earnings growth target of 6% to 8% through 2030
- Indicative 2026 annualised dividend rate of US$2.68 per share
- Nuclear uprates, licence extensions and data-centre contracts identified as potential upside
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (NYSE:PEG) is planning to spend up to US$25.5 billion on regulated investment through 2030, while leaving its 2026 earnings target unchanged. The New Jersey utility said its expanded US$22.5 billion to US$25.5 billion regulated capital plan is designed to support infrastructure modernisation, reliability, energy efficiency and rising customer demand, with no new equity issuance or asset sales required through 2030 under the current plan.
Capital plan expands as earnings target holds
PSEG maintained its long-term non-GAAP operating earnings growth outlook of 6% to 8% through 2030 and kept 2026 guidance at US$4.28 to US$4.40 per share. The company said the growth outlook is based mainly on PSE&G’s expanding regulated business, including a projected rate-base compound annual growth rate of 6% to 7.5% over the period.
The updated materials build on the company’s five-year investment programme, which was previously described as a US$24 billion to US$28 billion total capital programme for 2026 to 2030. More than 90% of capital allocation is expected to go to PSE&G and other regulated investments. The wider group capital plan remains US$24 billion to US$28 billion, suggesting the increase is concentrated in the regulated programme rather than a wholesale change in total spending.
Regulatory recovery remains central to the plan
PSE&G’s proposed deferral accounting order is intended to address regulatory lag on electric and gas investments made since its last distribution rate case. The filing says the proposed mechanism would allow a regulatory asset to offset the earnings impact of higher interest and depreciation costs on assets already in service but not yet included in base rates. The proposed deferral period would begin in January 2027, with a new electric and gas distribution base rate filing scheduled for June 2027.
The company also highlighted the US$1.4 billion, three-year Gas System Modernization Program III, which began in January 2026 after approval by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities. The programme is expected to replace at least 600 miles of gas mains, while the Clean Energy Future energy-efficiency programmes have generated more than US$1 billion in annual customer savings, according to the presentation. Those figures describe planned or reported programme outcomes, not guaranteed earnings contributions.
Nuclear fleet offers additional earnings options
PSEG’s nuclear operations remain the main source of potential upside outside the regulated investment case. The company reported a 94.3% average fleet capacity factor for the first nine months of 2026 and identified a Salem capacity uprate that could add about 112 megawatts on PSEG’s share, with work expected to enter service between 2027 and 2029.
PSEG has also informed the Nuclear Regulatory Commission of its intention to seek 20-year licence extensions for Salem Units 1 and 2 and Hope Creek. The proposed extensions would take the respective operating dates to 2056, 2060 and 2066, but remain subject to the regulatory process. Other possible upside includes longer refuelling cycles, multi-year contracts for existing or incremental nuclear output and power supply arrangements with large-load customers.
Dividend signal comes with board caveat
The materials show an indicative 2026 annualised common dividend rate of US$2.68 per share, approximately 6% above 2025 and representing a 15th consecutive annual increase if approved. PSEG said the dividend rate remains subject to future board declarations, so the figure is guidance rather than a completed shareholder return decision.
For the first nine months of 2026, PSEG reported US$1.451 billion of GAAP net income, down from US$1.796 billion a year earlier. Non-GAAP operating earnings moved in the opposite direction, rising to US$1.777 billion, or US$3.56 per diluted share, from US$1.667 billion, or US$3.33 per share. The difference was driven largely by mark-to-market and nuclear decommissioning trust movements, which the company excludes from its operating earnings measure and says can be volatile.
Bottom Line?
The investment case now depends less on a new earnings target than on converting a larger regulated spending pipeline into timely rate-base growth without weakening the balance sheet or affordability profile.
Questions in the middle?
- Will New Jersey regulators approve the proposed deferral mechanism on terms that reduce the current regulatory lag?
- Can PSEG execute the expanded regulated capital programme while maintaining its projected mid-teens non-GAAP FFO-to-debt ratio?
- How much incremental value will emerge from the Salem uprate, licence extensions and potential nuclear supply contracts?