WEC Energy Group has lifted its five-year capital plan to US$47.5 billion while securing a 9.50% authorised return on equity in Wisconsin’s 2027-2028 rate review. The plan is aimed at data-centre demand, new generation and grid expansion, but will require substantial debt and equity funding.
- US$47.5 billion 2027-2031 capital plan, US$10 billion above the previous plan
- Wisconsin regulators approved a 9.50% authorised ROE and maintained a 53.0% equity ratio
- Forecast electric demand expected to rise by 4.9 GW by 2031, led by Microsoft and Oracle-linked projects
- 2026 adjusted EPS guidance updated to US$5.60-US$5.64 per share
- US$18.7 billion-US$19.3 billion of incremental debt and US$5.1 billion-US$5.5 billion of common equity planned
US$47.5 Billion Capital Plan Targets New Demand
Generation accounts for the largest increase in the plan, with an additional US$8.4 billion compared with the prior outlook. Transmission rises by US$1.2 billion, while electric and gas distribution each increase by US$500 million. WEC also plans US$600 million less spending on liquefied natural gas than previously projected.
The program includes US$10.1 billion for thermal generation and LNG capacity, US$13.7 billion for regulated renewable generation and storage, and a projected US$5.3 billion share of American Transmission Company investment. Planned renewable spending covers 3,100 megawatts of solar, 3,450 megawatts of battery storage and 600 megawatts of wind capacity, according to the presentation.
Data Centres Drive Wisconsin Load Forecast
WEC expects Wisconsin electric demand to increase by 4.9 gigawatts by 2031, roughly 60% above current levels in the company’s forecast. The estimate includes 3.2 gigawatts associated with Microsoft’s southeast Wisconsin project and 1.3 gigawatts linked to Oracle and OpenAI’s Stargate expansion through a Vantage Data Centers campus in Port Washington, alongside a further 400 megawatts of growth.
The company forecasts weather-normalised Wisconsin electric sales growth of 6.0% to 8.0% in 2029-2031, compared with 0.5% to 0.8% for gas. The very large customer tariff approved earlier in 2026 is designed for customers with at least 100 megawatts of new forecast load, with dedicated generation and financial-security provisions intended to allocate project costs and risks to those customers.
Wisconsin Rate Review Sets 9.50% ROE
The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin approved the rate changes on November 5. The decision maintains the 53.0% equity ratio and includes earnings-sharing rules under which there is no sharing on the first 15 basis points above the allowed ROE, 50/50 sharing on the next 25 basis points, and all earnings beyond 40 basis points flowing to customers. A final written order is expected before year-end.
That written order matters because the presentation reports the headline parameters rather than a complete revenue-requirement breakdown. The final decision will provide the more useful test of how the approved framework translates into utility earnings and customer rates.
Funding Plan Brings Debt and Equity Pressure
WEC projects US$26.1 billion-US$27.1 billion of operating cash flow over 2027-2031, against US$42.2 billion of capital spending excluding American Transmission Company investment and US$8.6 billion-US$8.8 billion of dividends. The gap is expected to be covered by US$18.7 billion-US$19.3 billion of incremental debt and US$5.1 billion-US$5.5 billion of common equity, including US$4.0 billion-US$5.0 billion of junior subordinated notes or other securities with equity content.
The financing requirement gives immediate relevance to WEC’s potential US$4 billion equity raise, for which no shares had been sold as of the earlier announcement. Management says its 2027-2031 plan is compatible with long-term EPS growth of 7% to 9% or more, but the path depends on regulatory recovery, project execution and access to capital markets.
Dividend Growth and 2026 Guidance Remain Intact
The presentation updates 2026 earnings guidance to US$5.60-US$5.64 per share and points to 22 consecutive years of meeting or exceeding the top end of adjusted earnings guidance. WEC also highlights a 6.7% dividend increase in January to an annualised US$3.81 per share, its 23rd consecutive annual increase, and says it expects dividend growth of 6.5% to 7% with a 60%-70% payout ratio.
The investment case now rests on an unusually large set of moving parts: data-centre load must materialise, major generation and grid projects must win approvals, and the funding mix must support growth without weakening the balance sheet. The next hard evidence will come from the final Wisconsin order and the timing of the capital raising needed to execute the plan.
Bottom Line?
WEC has secured a supportive Wisconsin regulatory framework, but the US$47.5 billion build-out makes financing discipline and final rate-order detail just as important as the growth forecast.
Questions in the middle?
- How will the final written Wisconsin order change authorised revenue requirements and earnings recovery?
- When and at what price will WEC access the common-equity capacity identified in its funding plan?
- Will the forecast 4.9 GW of new Wisconsin electric demand arrive quickly enough to support the planned generation and network investment?